ROBIN HANSON TELLS THE TRUTH ON GOOGLES ENTERPRISE PREDICTION MARKETS.

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Robin Hanson:

Yes prediction markets are cool, Google is cool, and it is cool that Google had location data to show how location influences trading. But cool need not be useful. People are not asking the hard questions here: what value exactly is Google getting out of these markets, aside from helping them look cool?

Robin Hanson is a modern-day hero. Speaks the truth. Has a clear vision. Doesn’-t mind to act as a contrarian, now and then. Like Winston Churchill. Is a real leader.

Related Links: Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence From Google – (PDF file – PDF file) – by Bo Cowgill (Google economic analyst), Justin Wolfers (University of Pennsylvania) and Eric Zitzewitz (Dartmouth College)

Robin Hanson is not convinced by the Google experiment with enterprise prediction markets -to say the least.

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Robin Hanson in a comment on Marginal Revolution:

This is important work for organizational sociology, but not for prediction markets, as this does little to help us find and field high value markets.

Finally, somebody who speaks the truth.

See also the comment of economist Michael Giberson.

Related Links: Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence From Google – (PDF file – PDF file) – by Bo Cowgill (Google economic analyst), Justin Wolfers (University of Pennsylvania) and Eric Zitzewitz (Dartmouth College)

Have Googles enterprise prediction markets been accurate?

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Justin Wolfers:

So we decided to move beyond asking, “Do prediction markets work?” and instead use them as a tool for better understanding how information flows within a (very cool) corporation.

I am more interested in the accuracy of the enterprise prediction markets than in corporate micro-geography issues.

Related Links: Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence From Google – (PDF file – PDF file) – by Bo Cowgill (Google economic analyst), Justin Wolfers (University of Pennsylvania) and Eric Zitzewitz (Dartmouth College)