Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Michael Greenstone

Austan Goolsbee on Iraq and the Collective Wisdom of Bond Markets

Austan Goolsbee, writing in the New York Times, discusses Michael Greenstone’s paper (discussed here at Midas Oracle in September) that examines the market for Iraq’s bonds for an assessment of the long-term future of the Iraq government. Goolsbee’s quick conclusion: “But global financial markets have been monitoring the war for months, and with remarkable [...]

Extracting Market Predictions from Financial Data: Is the ‘Surge’ Working?

At Economist’s View, Mark Thoma draws attention to a recent paper that uses financial markets data to infer a market prediction of the likely effectiveness of the U.S. government’s ‘Surge’ strategy in Iraq.
In “Is The ‘Surge’ Working? Some New Facts“, MIT’s Michael Greenstone writes:
This paper shows how data from world financial markets can [...]

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