Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: market manipulation

The Robin Hanson manipulation papers make unrealistic assumptions, but it’s not like prediction markets are a bad idea…!!…

Written by Guest Author on November 30, 2009 — 2 Comments

In terms of unrealistic assumptions in Robin Hanson’s series of papers on manipulation, the major ones have been out there since at least 2004.
Despite some limited evidence, the insistence on traders needing to know the direction of manipulation isn’t too compelling since the direction will be manifest insofar as the price is “wrong.” “Noise [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchange & Market Designs, Exchange Liquidity, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged , , , , , , , , ,

There is no manipulation going on in the InTrade political prediction markets.

Written by Chris F. Masse on October 16, 2008 — 11 Comments

- InTrade CEO John Delaney has conducted an investigation on the alleged manipulation. The suspicious moves in prices were in fact caused by the buying and selling made by an “institutional” trader (a hedge fund, I presume) who has been managing “certain risks” (hedging).
- Jason Ruspini, who wrote before this report came out, does believe [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Hedging & Insurance, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Market Trading | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

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