Tag Archives: Mark Thoma

Mark Thoma, Superficial Blogger

Posted on August 9, 2010 by Jason Ruspini

His post, “The Myth of the Social Security Shortfall”, here, but if you don’t want to defer thinking, read Mish Shedlock on pension underfunding instead. Yes, taxes will have to go up, but it’s not as though sunsetting the Bush … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Economics, Ethics, Politics, The Global Economy | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Extracting Market Predictions from Financial Data: Is the ‘Surge’ Working?

Posted on September 15, 2007 by Michael Giberson

At Economist’s View, Mark Thoma draws attention to a recent paper that uses financial markets data to infer a market prediction of the likely effectiveness of the U.S. government’s ‘Surge’ strategy in Iraq. In “Is The ‘Surge’ Working? Some New … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

What’s the Probability of a Recession?

Posted on November 25, 2006 by Chris F. Masse

… asks professor Mark Thoma. The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco: Taken together with our inability to explain the unusually low level of long-term rates, this suggests to us that while the probability of recession might have gone up … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting (Science & Practice), The Global Economy | Tagged , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Justin Wolfers can’t believe that prediction markets don’t show already a clear win for the Dems in the 2008 presidential election.

Posted on November 3, 2006 by Chris F. Masse

How Much Do Election Shakeups Affect the Nation’s Economy? – [US politics & financial markets] – by Justin Wolfers and Mark Thoma – 2006-11-03 [Justin Wolfers] And the major puzzle that I currently see? The past two years have clearly … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments