Tag Archives: long-term prediction markets
Paul Hewitt on Rajiv Sethi on Nate Silver on Robin Hanson on climate change prediction markets
Measuring Decision Market Accuracy
Betting on Copenhagen
Emile Servan-Schreiber comments on a New York Times opinion piece:
The idea that betting could help us gain clarity on some controversial scientific questions has first been proposed by George Mason economics professor Robin Hanson in 1992 in a paper entitled “Could Gambling Save Science” and available online here: http://hanson.gmu.edu/gamble.html
The benefits of creating prediction markets about [...]
The Robin Hanson manipulation papers make unrealistic assumptions, but it’s not like prediction markets are a bad idea…!!…
In terms of unrealistic assumptions in Robin Hanson’s series of papers on manipulation, the major ones have been out there since at least 2004.
Despite some limited evidence, the insistence on traders needing to know the direction of manipulation isn’t too compelling since the direction will be manifest insofar as the price is “wrong.” “Noise [...]
Eric Crampton sheeshes Paul Hewitt.
Crampton’s blog
We should not use prediction markets in the climate change problematic.
Paul Hewitt:
While it may be possible to operate public policy prediction markets for some issues, their use in the climate change or global warming debate is questionable. Not only can there be no guarantee of manipulation-free markets, we wouldn’t even know if market predictions had been manipulated. If actual public policy were to [...]
Long-term prediction markets are usually very inaccurate for most of their durations.
Paul Hewitt to David Pennock:
With all due respect, that testing was done on markets 30 days before they closed. As I noted, time had almost run out on each of the markets. Consequently, one might expect an almost perfect accuracy and calibration.
The problem with these long-term markets is that they are usually very inaccurate for [...]
Robin Hanson’s long-term prediction markets are not very useful for proper decision-making.
Paul Hewitt sends Robin Hanson packing.
Paul Hewitt:
Just because there are long-term prediction markets does not mean that they are useful. Yes, there are a few long-term markets on ideosphere.com. Rather than dissect each one, I’ll look at two of them.
NUKE – started 10/10/1995 to predict whether nuclear weapons will be used before 1/1/2010. Ten years [...]
Robin Hanson is confident about long-term prediction markets.
Robin Hanson:
At ideosphere.com you will find eight claims that are over fifteen years old and still trading. One of them will be known in a few weeks. Calibration tests have been done on ideosphere prices showing moderate long shot bias I think.
Why Nate Silver is wrong about the usefulness of long-term prediction markets: IT DIDN’T WORK. IT IS A PATENTED FAIL.
Nate Silver becomes a little Robin Hanson fanboy… after just a lunch with the Master.
ACT ONE: Nate Silver lunched with Robin Hanson, one month ago, to interview him for his future book about forecasting.
ACT TWO: Robin Hanson has published yet another post pumping up prediction markets for solving every problem on Earth —this time, yelling [...]
Just say “no” to long-term prediction markets
So far, the most bizarre statement I have read this Wednesday morning:
Companies often ask me if prediction markets can forecast distant future topics. I tell them yes, [...]
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Huh?
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Here’s the second part of the statement:
[...] but that is not the place to test any doubts about prediction markets. To vet or validate prediction markets, you [...]
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