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Tag Archives: long-term prediction markets
Paul Hewitt on Rajiv Sethi on Nate Silver on Robin Hanson on climate change prediction markets
Measuring Decision Market Accuracy
Posted in Analysis (Market Proposals), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets
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Tagged betting markets, climate change, climate change prediction markets, event derivative markets, global warming, global warming prediction markets, long-term prediction markets, prediction markets
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1 Comment
Betting on Copenhagen
Emile Servan-Schreiber comments on a New York Times opinion piece: The idea that betting could help us gain clarity on some controversial scientific questions has first been proposed by George Mason economics professor Robin Hanson in 1992 in a paper … Continue reading →
The Robin Hanson manipulation papers make unrealistic assumptions, but it’s not like prediction markets are a bad idea…!!…
In terms of unrealistic assumptions in Robin Hanson’s series of papers on manipulation, the major ones have been out there since at least 2004. Despite some limited evidence, the insistence on traders needing to know the direction of manipulation isn’t … Continue reading →
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchange & Market Designs, Exchange Liquidity, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities
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Tagged Collective Forecasting, error, long-term markets, long-term prediction markets, manipulation, manipulations, market manipulation, market manipulations, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, self-fulfilling prophecy
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2 Comments
Eric Crampton sheeshes Paul Hewitt.
Crampton’s blog
We should not use prediction markets in the climate change problematic.
Paul Hewitt: While it may be possible to operate public policy prediction markets for some issues, their use in the climate change or global warming debate is questionable. Not only can there be no guarantee of manipulation-free markets, we wouldn’t … Continue reading →
Long-term prediction markets are usually very inaccurate for most of their durations.
Paul Hewitt to David Pennock: With all due respect, that testing was done on markets 30 days before they closed. As I noted, time had almost run out on each of the markets. Consequently, one might expect an almost perfect … Continue reading →
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice)
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Tagged accuracy, Collective Forecasting, long-term prediction markets, prediction markets, Robin Hanson
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Robin Hanson’s long-term prediction markets are not very useful for proper decision-making.
Paul Hewitt sends Robin Hanson packing. Paul Hewitt: Just because there are long-term prediction markets does not mean that they are useful. Yes, there are a few long-term markets on ideosphere.com. Rather than dissect each one, I’ll look at two … Continue reading →
Robin Hanson is confident about long-term prediction markets.
Robin Hanson: At ideosphere.com you will find eight claims that are over fifteen years old and still trading. One of them will be known in a few weeks. Calibration tests have been done on ideosphere prices showing moderate long shot … Continue reading →
Why Nate Silver is wrong about the usefulness of long-term prediction markets: IT DIDN’T WORK. IT IS A PATENTED FAIL.
Nate Silver becomes a little Robin Hanson fanboy… after just a lunch with the Master. ACT ONE: Nate Silver lunched with Robin Hanson, one month ago, to interview him for his future book about forecasting. ACT TWO: Robin Hanson has … Continue reading →
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Proposals), Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Inventions & Innovations, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Science
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Tagged accuracy, climate change, Collective Forecasting, conditional prediction markets, FAIL, global warming, long-term prediction markets, Nate Silver, Our Master Of All Universes, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, Science
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7 Comments
Just say “no” to long-term prediction markets
So far, the most bizarre statement I have read this Wednesday morning: Companies often ask me if prediction markets can forecast distant future topics. I tell them yes, [...] – Huh? – Here’s the second part of the statement: [...] … Continue reading →