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- Steven Krivit continues to trash Andrea Rossi and his LENR technology. — [LINK]
- Interview with Adam Lashinsky — [VIDEO]
- Why some people are more innovative — [VIDEO]
- Forbes editor deciphers Steve Jobs’s Apple. — [VIDEO]
- Jason Ruspini rebuts Eric Zitzewitz on the regulation of political prediction markets. — [COMMENT]
- Eric Zitzewitz petitions the CFTC in favor of real-money prediction markets about politics. — [TEXT]
- Global warming is a big scam. — [LINK]
- A Swarm of Nano Quadrotors — [VIDEO]
- The Tragedy of the Commons — [VIDEO]
- Guy Kawasaki on Steve Jobs — [VIDEO]
- Inside Apple — [VIDEO]
- Mitt Romney’s taxes — [LINKS]
- A critique of Apple’s multimedia iBooks. — [LINK]
- Does Apple lack “generosity”? — [LINKS]
- Apple Education Push — [LINKS]
- Water Crystals — [DOCUMENT]
- Apple’s e-book software will allow publishers to make textbooks more interactive. — [LINKS + VIDEO]
- Alain Soral is France’s most dangerous intellectual… (dangerous for the French plutocrats, that is). — [VIDEO]
- Computers thru time — [CHART]
- NASA has finally understood the theorical basis of LENR (low-energy nuclear reactions). — [VIDEO]
Tag Archives: Long bets
Socially valuable betting (based on accountable predictions) has long been legal in America, professor Hanson. — [AWARENESS]
Robin Hanson: A track record tech must be combined with a social equilibrium that punishes those with poor records, and thus encourages rivals and victims to collect and report records. The lesson I take for forecast accuracy is that it … Continue reading
Posted in Betting, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Forecasting (Science & Practice)
Tagged bets, Betting, betting markets, Collective Intelligence, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasting, Long bets, Long Now Foundation, long-term, long-term predictions, mid-term predictions, predicting, prediction markets, social utility, socially valluable bets, socially valuable prediction markets, wisdom of crowds
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“Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.â€
THE ONE MILLION DOLLAR BET. — “Both parties of this bet have agreed upon an adjudication methodology that has been approved by Long Bets. They have asked that it be kept confidential.” -
Posted in Betting, Finance
Tagged Finance, hedge funds, Long bets, Protege Partners, S&P, S&P 500, USD, Warren Buffett
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In a Google search of five keywords or phrases representing the top five news stories of 2007, weblogs will rank higher than the New York Times’ Web site.
The blogs won the bet. In a Google search of five keywords or phrases representing the top five news stories of 2007, weblogs will rank higher than the New York Times’ Web site. The bet has been expired on the … Continue reading
Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Betting, Prediction Journalism, The Internet
Tagged content management, content management systems, Dave Winer, Emile Servan-Schreiber, expiry judge, Google, Long bets, Martin Nisenholtz, Michael Giberson, New York Times, NY Times, Open Media, prediction markets, software packages, the New York Times
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Separating cheap talk from truly held beliefs
— In his book, Plight of the Fortune Tellers, Riccardo Rebonato describes how an invitation to bet can be used to separate cheap talk from truly held beliefs (and, in the process, ruin an otherwise engaging dinner conversation). In the … Continue reading
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Market Calls), Betting, Prediction Journalism
Tagged Ann Coulter, author, Chris Masse, CJD, Julian Simon, London, Long bets, mad cow disease, Michael Moore, Naomi Klein, Pat Buchanan, Paul Erhlich, prediction markets, Riccardo Rebonato, Robin Hanson, simon exchange, United Kingdom, United States, university lecturer
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