Tag Archives: Long bets
“Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.”
THE ONE MILLION DOLLAR BET. — “Both parties of this bet have agreed upon an adjudication methodology that has been approved by Long Bets. They have asked that it be kept confidential.”
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In a Google search of five keywords or phrases representing the top five news stories of 2007, weblogs will rank higher than the New York Times’ Web site.
The blogs won the bet.
In a Google search of five keywords or phrases representing the top five news stories of 2007, weblogs will rank higher than the New York Times’ Web site.
The bet has been expired on the “YES” side. Dave Winer (representing the bloggers) won —and Martin Nisenholtz (representing the New York Times —at [...]
Separating cheap talk from truly held beliefs
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In his book, Plight of the Fortune Tellers, Riccardo Rebonato describes how an invitation to bet can be used to separate cheap talk from truly held beliefs (and, in the process, ruin an otherwise engaging dinner conversation).
In the early to mid 1990s in the United Kingdom and in other European countries a widespread fear developed [...]
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