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- Native apps are reigning on mobiles, but Jakob Nielsen strategically bets on web apps. — [LINK]
- Steven Krivit continues to trash Andrea Rossi and his LENR technology. — [LINK]
- Interview with Adam Lashinsky — [VIDEO]
- Why some people are more innovative — [VIDEO]
- Forbes editor deciphers Steve Jobs’s Apple. — [VIDEO]
- Jason Ruspini rebuts Eric Zitzewitz on the regulation of political prediction markets. — [COMMENT]
- Eric Zitzewitz petitions the CFTC in favor of real-money prediction markets about politics. — [TEXT]
- Global warming is a big scam. — [LINK]
- A Swarm of Nano Quadrotors — [VIDEO]
- The Tragedy of the Commons — [VIDEO]
- Guy Kawasaki on Steve Jobs — [VIDEO]
- Inside Apple — [VIDEO]
- Mitt Romney’s taxes — [LINKS]
- A critique of Apple’s multimedia iBooks. — [LINK]
- Does Apple lack “generosity”? — [LINKS]
- Apple Education Push — [LINKS]
- Water Crystals — [DOCUMENT]
- Apple’s e-book software will allow publishers to make textbooks more interactive. — [LINKS + VIDEO]
- Alain Soral is France’s most dangerous intellectual… (dangerous for the French plutocrats, that is). — [VIDEO]
- Computers thru time — [CHART]
Tag Archives: Leighton Vaughan-Williams
Was the wreck of the USS Scorpion discovered thanks to collective intelligence?
Wikipedia on the USS Scorpion (SSN-589): The search A public search was initiated, but without immediate success and on 5 June, Scorpion and her crew were declared “presumed lost.” Her name was struck from the Naval Vessel Register on 30 … Continue reading
Posted in Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Forecasting (Science & Practice), History, Inventions & Innovations
Tagged Bayesian search theory, Collective Intelligence, History, James Surowiecki, John Craven, Leighton Vaughan-Williams, submarines, US Navy, USS Scorpion, wisdom of crowds
1 Comment
The best researchers on prediction markets
CFM: Scholars Check that CFM page for updates. And contact me so I can make additions to the list. (I’ll then re-publish that updated list on Midas Oracle.) – Michael Abramowicz – Michael B. Abramowicz – (Law School, George Washington … Continue reading
Posted in People, Resources - References
Tagged Adam, Adam Meirowitz, Administration, American Enterprise Institute, Anderson School, Andrew Leigh, Anita Elberse, Anthony M. Kwasnica, Arizona, Australia, Australian National University, Austria, Becker Center, Bernardo A. Huberman, Bernd H. Ankenbrand, Bernd Skiera, Bilkent University, British Columbia, Business, C. Schelling
- Thomas Schelling, California, California Institute of Technology, Canada, Centre Nationale, Change, Chapman University, Charles A. Holt, Charles F. Manski, Charles Holt, Charles R. Plott, Chicago, Chief Economist, Chris Hibbert, Collective Intelligence, College of Arts and Sciences, College of Business, College of Business Administration, College of Management, Connecticut, corporate prediction markets, D. Hamilton
- James Hamilton, D.C., Daniel Reeves, Dartmouth College, David M. Pennock, David Paton, David Porter, dean, Denmark, Department of Computer Science, Department of Economics, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Department of Insurance and Real Estate, Department of Politics, Director, Division of Humanity and Social Sciences, e-commerce, E. Litan
- Robert Litan, Economic Science Institute, Economics Department, Emile Servan-Schreiber, enterprise prediction markets, Eric Crampton, Eric W. Zitzewitz, Eric Zitzewitz, Erik Snowberg, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Executive Director, F. Manski
- Charles Manski, Florida, Forrest Nelson, France, Friedrich August Von Hayek, Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Gary William Flake, George Mason University, George R. Neumann, George Washington University, Gerhard Ortner, Germany, Goethe University, Google, Graduate School, H. Ankenbrand
- Bernd Ankenbrand, Hal R. Varian, Harvard Business School, Harvard University, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, HP Labs, IIT Center for Financial Markets, Illinois, Illinois Institute of Technology, information aggregation tool, Information Dynamics Lab, Information Services & Process Innovation Lab, internal prediction markets, Iowa, J. Arrow
- Kenneth Arrow, James Annan, James D. Hamilton, James Surowiecki, Japan, John O. Ledyard, Joyce Berg, Joyce E. Berg, Justin J. Wolfers, Justin Wolfers, Kansas, Kansas City, Kauffman Foundation, Kay-Yut Chen, Keith Gamble, Keith Jacks Gamble, Kellogg, Kenneth J. Arrow, Kentucky, L. Savage
- Sam Savage, Lance Fortnow, Lance J. Fortnow, law school, Lecturer, LEEPS, LEEPS laboratory, Leighton Vaughan-Williams, Leslie R. Fine, London Business School, Los Angeles, M. Kwasnica
- Anthony Kwasnica, M. Todd Henderson, manager, Marco Ottaviani, Martin Spann, Maryland, Massachusetts, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, McCormick School of Engineering, Michael Abramowicz, Michael B. Abramowicz, Michael Gorham, Michael P. Wellman, Michael Wellman, Michigan, Micro-Economic and Social Systems, Microsoft, Missouri, MIT, MIT Center, New Jersey, New York, New York City, New Zealand, Nicolas Lambert, North Carolina, Northwestern University, Norwestern University, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham University, Paris, Paul C. Tetlock, Paul Milgrom, Paul W. Rhode, Penn State University, Pennsylvania, Peter Norman Sorensen, Philip E. Tetlock, Philip Tetlock, prediction markets, Princeton University, Principal Research Scientist, private prediction markets, Professor, professors, R. Varian
- Hal Varian, Rahul Sami, Recherche Scientifique, Reg-Markets Center, Research School of Social Sciences, researchers, Richard Borghesi, Richard Roll, Robert E. Litan, Robert Forsythe, Robert J. Shiller, Robert W. Hahn, Robin D. Hanson, Robin Hanson, Russ Ray, Ryan Oprea, Sam L. Savage, San Diego, San Marcos, Santa Cruz, Sauder School of Business, Saul Levmore, scholars, School of Business, School of Information, School of Management, School of Public Affair, Sciences, Social Computing Lab, software architect, Stanford University, Steve Levitt, Steven D. Levitt, Steven Levitt, Stuart School of Business, technology, Texas, Texas State University, Thomas A. Rietz, Thomas C. Schelling, Thomas Gruca, Thomas S Gruca, Thomas W. Malone, Thomas W. Ross, Todd A. Proebsting, Todd Proebsting, Tom Malone, Tom W. Bell, Tracy Mullen, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States, University of Applied Sciences, University of Arizona, University of British Columbia, University of California at Los Angeles, University of Canterbury, University of Chicago, University of Copenhagen, University of Iowa, University of Kansas, University of Louisville, University of Maryland, University of Michigan, University of North Carolina, University of Passau, University of Pennsylvania, University of South Florida, University of Texas at Austin, University of Virginia, Vancouver, Vernon L. Smith, Vice President for Research and Policy, Virginia, W. Flake - Gary Flake, W. Rhode
- Paul Rhode, W. Ross
- Thomas Ross, Washington, Werner Antweiler, Wharton Business School, Witten, Witten/Herdecke University, Yahoo! Research Labs, Yale University, Zocalo Project Manager
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BetFair-TradeFair (slightly) improve their blog, finally (it was about time) —and open 2 new sections: “prediction markets” and “financials”.
Here’s the vertical menu of the BetFair blog. Scroll down until you see “Politics”, and “Prediction Markets”. – - Here’s their section on politics: – Here’s their section on finance: – - My thoughts: Their “about” page still does not … Continue reading
Posted in Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Prediction Journalism, Resources - References
Tagged America, author, BetFair, BetFair blog, Clinton, David Jack, David Pennock, Editor, Eric Ziztwitz, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Finance, Google, informed BetFair trader, InTrade, Justin Wolfers, KING, Lance Fortnow, Leighton Vaughan-Williams, Michael Robb, Mike Robb, Paul Tetlock, prediction exchanges, prediction market approach, prediction market journalism, prediction market writer, prediction markets, Professor, Robin Hanson, Search Engine, search engine spiders, TradeFair, TradeSports, United Kingdom, web-literate internationalist, writer
3 Comments
Here’s an example of the total crap that the BetFair blog is publishing.
BetFair blog: Pamela Anderson’s Poker Guru PAMELA Anderson says she is “done with the marriage thing”. Pammy is divorcing her third husband. The marriage lasted four months. Says Pammy: “My mom wishes I was born gay”. She adds: “I am … Continue reading
Posted in Prediction Journalism
Tagged acknowledged and influential advocate, attorney, BetFair, BetFair blog, Betting @ BetFair, crap, good divorce attorney, Justin Wolfers, Justin Wolfers' association, leader, Leighton Vaughan-Williams, Metro, Pamela Anderson, Paris Hilton, prediction markets, Professor, Rick Salomon, university professor, Wall Street Journal
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Journalism Failures — Big Time
— – In February 2001, Fortune magazine named ENRON the “most innovative company”. – In October 2007, Robin Hanson, on the Overcoming Bias blog, re-published the falsehood that James Surowiecki (and 3 other book authors in their respective book) made … Continue reading
Posted in Ethics, Finance, Prediction Journalism
Tagged Enron, errors, failures, Fortune, Francis Galton, James Surowiecki, Jerome Kerviel, journalim, Leighton Vaughan-Williams, Marc Andreessen, Michigan, mistakes, Open Media, prediction markets, risk, Risk magazine, Robin Hanson, Societe Generale, USD
9 Comments
The conundrum of the betting market = the favorite-longshot bias.
Explained by professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams in 2003. Via Niall O’Connor.
Posted in Explainers
Tagged favorite-longshot bias, Leighton Vaughan-Williams, Niall O'Connor, Professor
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Did the BetFair blog use trading data from InTrade to hint at BetFair’s accuracy??
Latest update on the BetFair blog fiasco — I am alerted today that the BetFair blog has updated its infamous Michigan story with a new compound chart bearing a clearer label. It reads now: Republican nomination – The race so … Continue reading
Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism
Tagged ABC, accuracy, BetFair, BetFair blog, betting markets, blog editor, BMP, David Jack, Editor, Ethics, event derivative markets, event derivatives, furious Betair blog writer, governor, Internet connection, Leighton Vaughan-Williams, Mark Davies, McCain, Michel Robb, Michigan, Mitt Romney, New Hampshire, Niall O'Connor, Niall Or'Connor, prediction market journalism, prediction markets, Professor, Robin Marks, Tony Clare, web publisher, web publishing, writer
3 Comments
The Michigan primary as seen thru the BetFair prediction markets
Thanks to Michael Robb from BetFair, I can show you the charts of the last day of trading on Michigan’s election day. You can see, on the Republican chart, Mitt Romney (in red) as the Comeback Kid —starting at 3:00PM … Continue reading