Tag Archives: Justin Wolfers

Though not a legal, registered financial advisor, Justin Wolfers hands out financial ‘advice’ to anyone who is foolish enough to listen. — [SCREENSHOT]

Posted on September 12, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

More. – “A financial adviser or stock broker should be licensed to provide any consultation on investment in securities.” -

Posted in Analysis (Market Calls), Betting, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Financial Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism, Predictions - Forecasts, Regulations | Tagged 2012 elections, 2012 US presidential election, bets, Betting, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, financial advisor, financial advisors, forecasting, forecasts, GOP, InTrade, Justin Wolfers, laws, Mitt Romney, predicting, prediction markets, Predictions, Regulations, Republican candidates, Republican Party, Republican primary, republicans, Rick Perry | Leave a comment

Paul Hewitt on the usefulness of the prediction markets — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on August 2, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Paul Hewitt: I don’t think there is any question that the usefulness of prediction markets has been exaggerated. We don’t hear much from James Surowiecki anymore. So a few of those polled probably indicated that he doesn’t exaggerate the usefulness … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, derivatives, Economics, economics bloggers, economists, event derivative markets, event derivatives, James Surowiecki, Justin Wolfers, Kauffman Foundation, poll, polls, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, survey, surveys, usefulness, usefulness of prediction markets | Leave a comment

Philip Tetlock’s forecasting project is now open to non-US participants. — [UPDATE]

Posted on August 2, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

IMPORTANT: IARPA has removed the US citizenship requirement for survey participants. – Philip E. Tetlock et al.: Prediction markets can harness the “wisdom of crowds” to solve problems, develop products, and make forecasts. These systems typically treat collective intelligence as … Continue reading →

Posted in Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Psychology, Research | Tagged Betting, betting markets, Economics, event derivative markets, event derivatives, experts, forecasting, Forecasting (Science & Practice), forecasts, Justin Wolfers, Philip E. Tetlock, Philip Tetlock, predicting, prediction markets, Predictions, Psychology, Research | Leave a comment

Have Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers and James Surowiecki been exaggerating the usefulness of the prediction markets? — [SURVEY RESULT]

Posted on July 28, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Here’s the result of the Kauffman Foundation poll: – UPDATE: Here’s an example (among many) of the grave problems with prediction markets, which are unreported by the media. – PDF document. – - – - – - – - – … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Exchanges & Markets, The Global Economy | Tagged betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, derivatives, Economics, economics bloggers, economists, event derivative markets, event derivatives, James Surowiecki, Justin Wolfers, Kauffman Foundation, poll, polls, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, survey, surveys, usefulness, usefulness of prediction markets | 1 Comment

That’s a tough one… How would you have answered? — [POLL]

Posted on July 11, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

UPDATE: The poll result.

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets | Tagged betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, James Surowiecki, Justin Wolfers, Kauffman Foundation, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, usefulness | Leave a comment

John Delaney Obituary — [LINKS]

Posted on May 30, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

I’ve updated my original post, but I guess most of my readers didn’t return to it, so I am re-listing here the reactions to InTrade CEO John Delaney‘s death. – New York Times & CNBC. – all the negative remarks … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, People | Tagged Betting, betting markets, Business, Caveat Bettor, entrepreneurs, event derivative markets, Exchanges & Markets, InTrade, Ireland, John Delaney, Justin Wolfers, Max Keiser, Mount Everest, obituary, Patrick Young, People and tagged bets, prediction markets | Leave a comment

InTrade CEO John Delaney (42) died on May 21, 2011, while climbing Mount Everest, and his body will remain there. — [OBITUARY]

Posted on May 24, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

New York Times & CNBC. John Delaney, 41, from Ireland, has collapsed less than 50m from the top. He left for the expedition on April 9 and was due back in Ireland at the end of this month. His body … Continue reading →

Posted in Business, Exchanges & Markets, People | Tagged bets, Betting, betting markets, Caveat Bettor, entrepreneurs, event derivative markets, InTrade, Ireland, John Delaney, Justin Wolfers, Max Keiser, Mount Everest, obituary, Patrick Young, prediction markets | Leave a comment

InTrade’s prediction markets on secretive events are just an Irish scam. — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on May 7, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Paul Hewitt: How do we know the Intrade price was not accurate? Well, the raid wasn’t just executed on a whim. It had been planned for quite some time. Therefore, the true likelihood must have been much higher than the … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged Al Qaeda, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasts, InTrade, Justin Wolfers, post-mortem, post-mortems, prediction markets, Prediction Post-Mortem, prediction post-mortems, Predictions, scam, terrorism, terrorists | Leave a comment

InTrade on the elimination of Osama Bin Laden — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on May 7, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Mike Giberson: How do we know, now, that Intrade’s market price was not an accurate estimate of the probability bin Laden was killed or captured by September 2011? Is an prior estimate of 50 percent likelihood that a tossed coin … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged Al Qaeda, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasts, InTrade, James Surowiecki, Justin Wolfers, Osama bin Laden, post-mortem, post-mortems, prediction markets, Prediction Post-Mortem, prediction post-mortems, Predictions, Robin Hanson, terrorism, terrorists | 1 Comment

Robin Hanson’s couple vs. Justin Wolfers’ s couple — [CONTRAST]

Posted on April 27, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

- Robin Hanson and his wife maintains 2 separate bank accounts, and his wife is down to Earth. Marriage, despite its lack of clean edges and predictable outcomes, is one of the few institutions he seems to have no interest … Continue reading →

Posted in Economics, Money, People | Tagged budgets, careers, Economics, family, Justin Wolfers, marriage, Money, Peggy Jackson, Robin Hanson, spending | 2 Comments

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