Tag Archives: Jonathan Kennedy

Prediction Markets 101

Posted on January 12, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on advanced indicators (like polls … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Explainers | Tagged Adam, Adam Siegel, Chris Masse, definition, Emile Servan-Schreiber, Eric Zitzewitz, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Everyday Economist, explainer, George Tziralis, Jason Ruspini, John Tierney, Jonathan Kennedy, Justin Wolfers, Leighton Vaughan-Williams, meta forecasting tools, Michael Giberson, Mike Giberson, Nigel Eccles, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, Steve Roman, USD | Leave a comment

Who did best in explaining the prediction markets to the lynching crowd?

Posted on January 11, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

After the New Hampshire fiasco, 16 18 people came to defend the prediction markets, so far. So far, the best takes are from: George Tziralis Robin Hanson Jonathan Kennedy and I’ll give the 4th spot to a combo, mixing takes … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta) | Tagged accuracy, Adam, Adam Siegel, Brent Stinsky, Chris Hibbert, Christmas, Collective Intelligence, critics, David Jack, David Pennock, David Perry, David Yu, Donald Luskin, Emile Servan-Schreiber, event derivative markets, event derivatives, George Tziralis, Greg Mankiw, James Surowiecki, Jed Christiansen, John Delaney, John Tierney, Jonathan Kennedy, Ken Kittlitz, Mark Davis, Mike Linksvayer, New Hampshire, Panos Ipeirotis, Paul Tetlock, prediction markets, Richard Borghesi, Robin Hanson, Steve Bass, Steve Roman, Tyler Cowen, wisdom of crowds, YouTube | 1 Comment

THE SILICON ALLEY BLOG COMES TO THE RESCUE OF THE PREDICTION MARKETS.

Posted on January 10, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Silicon Alley’s Jonathan Kennedy: [...] In denouncing prediction markets as “wrong,” however, many pundits miss the point. Prediction markets do not provide accurate predictions of the future. (How could they? They simply represent the consensus guess of a group of … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged accuracy, Barry Ritholtz, Collective Intelligence, collective wisdom, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Financial Markets, Jonathan Kennedy, markets, McCain, prediction markets, Predictions, wisdom of crowds | Leave a comment

Prediction Market Industry Association = useless, so far

Posted on January 10, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

We have witnessed a backlash against the prediction markets just after the Hew Hampshire fiasco. Some bloggers and journalists picked on the prediction markets (InTrade, that is), even though both the polls and the pundits were awfully wrong too. [*] … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Prediction Journalism | Tagged Adam, Adam Siegel, blog, bloggers, Chris Masse, Emile Servan-Schreiber, Eric Zitzewitz, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Everyday Economist, Felix Salmon, George Tziralis, Jason Ruspini, Jed Christiansen, John Tierney, Jonathan Kennedy, Justin Wolfers, Lance Fortnow, Leighton Vaughan-Williams, Mike Giberson, Nigel Eccles, PMIA, polls, Prediction Market Industry Association, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, Sean Park, Steve Roman, the New York Times, Tim Harford, Wall Street Journal | 5 Comments

Tag Archives: Jonathan Kennedy

Prediction Markets 101

Who did best in explaining the prediction markets to the lynching crowd?

THE SILICON ALLEY BLOG COMES TO THE RESCUE OF THE PREDICTION MARKETS.

Prediction Market Industry Association = useless, so far

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