Midas Oracle .ORG

Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Home
About
- Kudos
- Terms Of Use
Archives
Authors
Best
Contact
IT
Links
Predictions

Tag Archives: James Reade

Can prediction markets help improve economic forecasts?

Written by Michael Giberson on June 15, 2009 — 10 Comments

Contrary to the suggestion of Hendry and Reade, I don’t think “model averaging” is a useful explanation of what prediction markets do.

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Mechanism Designs | Also tagged betting markets, Collective Forecasting, collective forecasting mechanisms, David Hendry, economic forecasts, event derivative markets, forecasting, information aggregation mechanisms, prediction markets

Search

Search

In / Out

Log in
Entries RSS
Comments RSS
WordPress.org

Recent Comments

Max Keiser on Nate Silver: InTrade probability on ObamaCare is quite right.
Jason Ruspini on Does InTrade participate on its own prediction markets?
Max Keiser on Does InTrade participate on its own prediction markets?
Max Keiser on Nate Silver: InTrade probability on ObamaCare is quite right.
Max Keiser on When the ObamaCare event derivative reaches 80%, I will officially declare America as a socialist country —just like France and Sweden.
Jason Ruspini on OBAMACARE PREDICTION MARKET WAS BRIEFLY MANIPULATED YESTERDAY EVENING SO IT WOULD ARTIFICIALLY CLOSE AT $35. – [CHART]
Paul Hewitt on When the ObamaCare event derivative reaches 80%, I will officially declare America as a socialist country —just like France and Sweden.
Chris F. Masse on We interrupt this report to bring you some Jazz.
Chris F. Masse on OBAMACARE PREDICTION MARKET WAS BRIEFLY MANIPULATED YESTERDAY EVENING SO IT WOULD ARTIFICIALLY CLOSE AT $35. – [CHART]
Chris F. Masse on “InTrade should address this incident and suspend the account of whoever did this.”

Post Tags

2008 US presidential elections accuracy Barack Obama BetFair Betting betting markets CEO CFTC Chris Masse Collective Intelligence corporate prediction markets David Pennock Emile Servan-Schreiber enterprise prediction markets Eric Zitzewitz event derivative markets event derivatives Finance Google Hollywood Stock Exchange HubDub Humor internal prediction markets InTrade Jason Ruspini John Delaney Justin Wolfers laws Midas Oracle NewsFutures New York Times Niall O'Connor Politics prediction exchanges prediction markets President private prediction markets Regulations Robin Hanson Trader United Kingdom United States USD US politics Yahoo!

Post Categories

© 2009 Midas Oracle .ORG. Built on WP Framework — Powered by WordPress