Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Iran

Hubdub Hot Predictions This Week

Written by Ryan on June 22, 2009 — Leave a Comment

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week – and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.
World
On Sunday Tehran was relatively quiet compared to the past weeks street violence, [...]

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Max Keiser says on Iranian TV that HubDub’s play-money prediction market on oil price has more predictive power than the oil derivative markets (oil futures markets).

Written by Chris F. Masse on August 18, 2008 — 1 Comment

Sounds like a stretch, at first glance, but listen to his argument, first, before you judge it.
Good plug of HubDub inside an economic analysis segment.
Video

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Market Prices & Probabilities, The Global Economy | Also tagged , , , , , , , , ,

I don’t fully agree with Max Keiser’s politics, but I do love his video prediction market journalism. Max, you’re great, here.

Written by Chris F. Masse on July 19, 2008 — 15 Comments

YouTube

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics, Prediction Journalism | Also tagged , , , , ,

INTRADE TRADERS, BEWARE. — Primary indicators from Iran might not be reliable: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad doctors pictures using PhotoShop.

Written by Chris F. Masse on July 10, 2008 — Leave a Comment

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UPDATE:

Posted in Leading & Lagging Indicators, Politics | Also tagged , ,

What I mean by “advanced” and “retarded”

Written by Chris F. Masse on July 7, 2008 — Leave a Comment

- An event is “advanced” when it is before the others on the timeline.
- An event is “retarded” when it is after the others on the timeline.
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- I use the term “advanced, primary indicator” to talk about the leading sources of information that active traders rely on.
- Last time, in the title, I said that [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Market Calls), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Prices & Probabilities, Miscellaneous, Psychology, Science | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Clueless and retarded InTrade traders (“the sheep”) can’t take “no” for an answer. — Short sellers (“the wolves”) will BBQ them.

Written by Chris F. Masse on July 3, 2008 — 3 Comments

Still trading at 30% this Thursday morning.
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- US Military Chief Says Any Attack on Iran Would be Destabilizing.
- Israel has signaled the U.S. and other allies that air operations to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities are not imminent.
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Explainer On Prediction Markets
Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating [...]

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

50%

Written by Chris F. Masse on July 2, 2008 — Leave a Comment
Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged , , , , , , ,

We interrupt this bulletin devoted to the upcoming CFTC ruling to inform you that we’re afraid that your “Israel-bombs-Iran-in-2008″ event derivatives are now completely… WORTHLESS —unless you’re a short seller.

Written by Chris F. Masse on July 2, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Israel has signaled the U.S. and other allies that air operations to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities are not imminent.
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Explainer On Prediction Markets
Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools [...]

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,

One word is missing (“Israel”), and the event derivative market is useless.

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 29, 2008 — Leave a Comment

The USA or the UN will attack Iran before winter, 2008

© NewsFutures

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged , , , , , , , , ,

The “Israel bombs Iran” event derivative at InTrade should go further than the end of December 2008 to be fully useful.

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 29, 2008 — Leave a Comment

They need to create contracts for 2009 —since Barack Obama takes office in January 2009, and since the timeframe given by that Israeli spy covers 2008 S2 and 2009 S1.
See my post on Midas Oracle .COM for more on the situation.
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Posted in Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged , , , , , ,
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