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Tag Archives: Iran

Hubdub Hot Predictions This Week

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week – and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.
World
On Sunday Tehran was relatively quiet compared to the past weeks street violence, [...]

Max Keiser says on Iranian TV that HubDub’s play-money prediction market on oil price has more predictive power than the oil derivative markets (oil futures markets).

Sounds like a stretch, at first glance, but listen to his argument, first, before you judge it.
Good plug of HubDub inside an economic analysis segment.
Video

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I don’t fully agree with Max Keiser’s politics, but I do love his video prediction market journalism. Max, you’re great, here.

YouTube

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INTRADE TRADERS, BEWARE. — Primary indicators from Iran might not be reliable: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad doctors pictures using PhotoShop.

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UPDATE:

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What I mean by “advanced” and “retarded”

- An event is “advanced” when it is before the others on the timeline.
- An event is “retarded” when it is after the others on the timeline.
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- I use the term “advanced, primary indicator” to talk about the leading sources of information that active traders rely on.
- Last time, in the title, I said that [...]

Clueless and retarded InTrade traders (”the sheep”) can’t take “no” for an answer. — Short sellers (”the wolves”) will BBQ them.

Still trading at 30% this Thursday morning.
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- US Military Chief Says Any Attack on Iran Would be Destabilizing.
- Israel has signaled the U.S. and other allies that air operations to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities are not imminent.
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Explainer On Prediction Markets
Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating [...]

50%

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We interrupt this bulletin devoted to the upcoming CFTC ruling to inform you that we’re afraid that your “Israel-bombs-Iran-in-2008″ event derivatives are now completely… WORTHLESS —unless you’re a short seller.

Israel has signaled the U.S. and other allies that air operations to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities are not imminent.
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Explainer On Prediction Markets
Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools [...]

One word is missing (”Israel”), and the event derivative market is useless.

The USA or the UN will attack Iran before winter, 2008

© NewsFutures

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The “Israel bombs Iran” event derivative at InTrade should go further than the end of December 2008 to be fully useful.

They need to create contracts for 2009 —since Barack Obama takes office in January 2009, and since the timeframe given by that Israeli spy covers 2008 S2 and 2009 S1.
See my post on Midas Oracle .COM for more on the situation.
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