Tag Archives: interpreting prices as probabilities

The proper way to predict Obama’s electoral vote count

I’m puzzled by the way Intrade projects the electoral vote count on its home page. Two methods are proposed: (a) add up the votes of all the states that are “leaning” (>50%) for a candidate, or (b) compute a price-weighted … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , | 10 Comments

Don’t event derivative prices represent aggregated expected probabilities, rather?

InTrade CEO’s poodle got corrected on the concept of interpreting prediction market prices as probabilities: – - LoudNotes, please contact me, I do have a vacant blog author slot to fill: cfm |-at-| midasoracle |.|-com-| chrisfmasse |-at-| gmail |.|-com-| -

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Science | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment