Tag Archives: information aggregation
InfoSurv’s prediction market software
InfoSurv:
Infosurv Launches v2.0 of the iCE Prediction Market System
New prediction market technology allows marketers to leverage employees, customers, or targeted consumer groups to accurately predict new product success
Atlanta, GA – Infosurv, Inc., a global leader in online market research, has recently launched version 2.0 of its patent-pending iCE (Infosurv Concept Exchange) prediction market system. [...]
They are using prediction markets to forecast what…???…
- “to predict the likelihood of breast cancer drugs succeeding through the three phases of drug clinical trials.”
- to “help doctors and patients gain insights into the safety and efficacy of specific drugs at the early stages of clinical trials beyond information that is publicly available.”
Complete B.S.
Have the public prediction markets ever been taken seriously by the media and the decision makers during the 1988–2009 period?
Why the influenza A (H1N1) prediction markets are not used by the media and the decision makers
Robin Hanson:
If H1N1 were more deadly, there’d be more interest in forecasting the number of victims. So far it seems about as deadly as an ordinary flu, which ordinary folks also aren’t very interested in tracking. Now if there [...]
How to win at the lottery (lotto) thanks to a method called the “wisdom of crowds”
Here is the e-mail I have just received:
Dear Sir/Madam,
WisdomOfTheNet.com is a new website that predicts lottery numbers.
On 9th September, Derren Brown successfully predicted the National Lottery numbers using a technique called the wisdom of the crowds. The wisdom of the crowds is the process of collecting the opinions of many individuals and producing an answer. [...]
Midas Oracle debunks the EPM software vendors’ shallow marketing discourse. But there is a price to pay, of course.
Here is what the San Francisco clown had to say about Midas Oracle:
For example one PM blog traffics in deliberate Balkanization of the market. It pretends to be community. It uses lurid narcissism. Some PM stakeholders honor this anal-expulsive PM sideshow. Problem is, there are serious consequences for the fanboys of provocative, [...]
Derren Brown’s lottery win = A split camera trick disguised as “wisdom of crowds”
Derren Brown: How to Win the Lottery (Channel 4 in the U.K.)
On 9 September 2009, [British illusionist] Derren Brown conducted a live TV broadcast in which he suggested that he had successfully predicted the winning National Lottery numbers prior to them being drawn. During the broadcast a number of blank lottery balls were displayed on [...]
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