Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: information aggregation

InfoSurv’s prediction market software

InfoSurv:
Infosurv Launches v2.0 of the iCE Prediction Market System
New prediction market technology allows marketers to leverage employees, customers, or targeted consumer groups to accurately predict new product success
Atlanta, GA – Infosurv, Inc., a global leader in online market research, has recently launched version 2.0 of its patent-pending iCE (Infosurv Concept Exchange) prediction market system. [...]

Unlike RCF, prediction markets are much harder to be gamed by the planner.

“A well-crafted prediction market draws from a diverse group of people, ensuring a balanced point-of-view.”

They are using prediction markets to forecast what…???…

- “to predict the likelihood of breast cancer drugs succeeding through the three phases of drug clinical trials.”
- to “help doctors and patients gain insights into the safety and efficacy of specific drugs at the early stages of clinical trials beyond information that is publicly available.”
Complete B.S.

Deep Throat’s take of Emile’s take of the SAVE AWARD program

Emile’s idea is a half-beauty contest, but if Emile thinks the OMB officials have expertise that won’t be swayed by the crowd, then the original SAVE AWARD process was half-good as well.
The officials would be able to count the number of similar suggestions and in that way they would approximate aggregation. It’s just not as [...]

Can a Keynesian beauty contest improve Pres. Obama’s suggestion box for U.S government employees?

President Barack Obama has created the “SAVE Award,” a process by which U.S. government employees can submit ideas for “how their agency can save money and perform better.” A committee of senior officials from the Office of Management and Budget at the White House will review the submissions and submit a short list to the [...]

Barack Obama and the wisdom of the Federal crowd

“There is no aggregation of the collective wisdom. The crowd is called on only to submit ideas, not to help evaluate them, which is the critical step in the delicate wisdom of crowd recipe.”

Have the public prediction markets ever been taken seriously by the media and the decision makers during the 1988–2009 period?

Why the influenza A (H1N1) prediction markets are not used by the media and the decision makers
Robin Hanson:
If H1N1 were more deadly, there’d be more interest in forecasting the number of victims. So far it seems about as deadly as an ordinary flu, which ordinary folks also aren’t very interested in tracking. Now if there [...]

How to win at the lottery (lotto) thanks to a method called the “wisdom of crowds”

Here is the e-mail I have just received:
Dear Sir/Madam,
WisdomOfTheNet.com is a new website that predicts lottery numbers.
On 9th September, Derren Brown successfully predicted the National Lottery numbers using a technique called the wisdom of the crowds. The wisdom of the crowds is the process of collecting the opinions of many individuals and producing an answer. [...]

Midas Oracle debunks the EPM software vendors’ shallow marketing discourse. But there is a price to pay, of course.

Here is what the San Francisco clown had to say about Midas Oracle:
For example one PM blog traffics in deliberate Balkanization of the market. It pretends to be community. It uses lurid narcissism. Some PM stakeholders honor this anal-expulsive PM sideshow. Problem is, there are serious consequences for the fanboys of provocative, [...]

Derren Brown’s lottery win = A split camera trick disguised as “wisdom of crowds”

Derren Brown: How to Win the Lottery (Channel 4 in the U.K.)

On 9 September 2009, [British illusionist] Derren Brown conducted a live TV broadcast in which he suggested that he had successfully predicted the winning National Lottery numbers prior to them being drawn. During the broadcast a number of blank lottery balls were displayed on [...]

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