Tag Archives: information aggregation

InfoSurv’s prediction market software

InfoSurv: Infosurv Launches v2.0 of the iCE Prediction Market System New prediction market technology allows marketers to leverage employees, customers, or targeted consumer groups to accurately predict new product success Atlanta, GA – Infosurv, Inc., a global leader in online … Continue reading

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Unlike RCF, prediction markets are much harder to be gamed by the planner.

“A well-crafted prediction market draws from a diverse group of people, ensuring a balanced point-of-view.”

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They are using prediction markets to forecast what…???…

- “to predict the likelihood of breast cancer drugs succeeding through the three phases of drug clinical trials.” – to “help doctors and patients gain insights into the safety and efficacy of specific drugs at the early stages of clinical … Continue reading

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Deep Throat’s take of Emile’s take of the SAVE AWARD program

Emile’s idea is a half-beauty contest, but if Emile thinks the OMB officials have expertise that won’t be swayed by the crowd, then the original SAVE AWARD process was half-good as well. The officials would be able to count the … Continue reading

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Can a Keynesian beauty contest improve Pres. Obama’s suggestion box for U.S government employees?

President Barack Obama has created the “SAVE Award,” a process by which U.S. government employees can submit ideas for “how their agency can save money and perform better.” A committee of senior officials from the Office of Management and Budget … Continue reading

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Barack Obama and the wisdom of the Federal crowd

“There is no aggregation of the collective wisdom. The crowd is called on only to submit ideas, not to help evaluate them, which is the critical step in the delicate wisdom of crowd recipe.”

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Have the public prediction markets ever been taken seriously by the media and the decision makers during the 1988–2009 period?

Why the influenza A (H1N1) prediction markets are not used by the media and the decision makers Robin Hanson: If H1N1 were more deadly, there’d be more interest in forecasting the number of victims. So far it seems about as … Continue reading

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How to win at the lottery (lotto) thanks to a method called the “wisdom of crowds”

Here is the e-mail I have just received: Dear Sir/Madam, WisdomOfTheNet.com is a new website that predicts lottery numbers. On 9th September, Derren Brown successfully predicted the National Lottery numbers using a technique called the wisdom of the crowds. The … Continue reading

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Midas Oracle debunks the EPM software vendors’ shallow marketing discourse. But there is a price to pay, of course.

Here is what the San Francisco clown had to say about Midas Oracle: For example one PM blog traffics in deliberate Balkanization of the market. It pretends to be community. It uses lurid narcissism. Some PM stakeholders honor this anal-expulsive … Continue reading

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Derren Brown’s lottery win = A split camera trick disguised as “wisdom of crowds”

Derren Brown: How to Win the Lottery (Channel 4 in the U.K.) On 9 September 2009, [British illusionist] Derren Brown conducted a live TV broadcast in which he suggested that he had successfully predicted the winning National Lottery numbers prior … Continue reading

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