Tag Archives: IBM Smarter Cities

5 minutes after joining, Ben Shannon managed to get second place on the IBM Smarter Cities leaderboard.

Posted on September 1, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

5 minutes after joining, Ben Shannon managed to get second place on the IBM Smarter Cities leaderboard.

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What IBM Smarter Cities are doing is NOT a prediction market, but instead a polling system.

Posted on August 30, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

What IBM Smarter Cities are doing is NOT a prediction market, but instead a polling system. Dixit Jed Christiansen.

Posted in Collective Forecasting, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged | Leave a comment

InTrade continue to misrepresent IBM Smarter Cities.

Posted on August 30, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

2 hours ago, InTrade has published another tweet labeling the IBM Smarter Cities polling system as “prediction markets”. InTrade keeps propagating a fallacy on the Internet. UPDATE: Jed Christiansen’s post

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Prediction markets are not beauty contests, and InTrade are not truth-oriented people.

Posted on August 30, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Panos Iperotis: [T]he “truth grounding” of prediction markets serves to avoid the self-reinforcement described above. If a market, grounded on a real outcome, says A=90% and B=10% one day before expiration, and I believe that B is the real winner, … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Ethics, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

The Prediction Market Police

Posted on August 28, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

I should have listened to Panos Ipeirotis…!!!…

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Are IBM Smarter Cities prediction markets too smart for people?

Posted on August 27, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

IBM Smarter Cities prediction mechanisms 20 prediction lines Only one socially generated prediction is over 50%. UPDATE: The first version of this post used the term “prediction markets”, because that is how Spigit brands these mechanisms, but, on a closer … Continue reading →

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