Tag Archives: hype

The crisis of meaning of the prediction markets — [HYPE CYCLE]

Posted on July 6, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets | Tagged bets, Betting, betting markets, crisis of meaning, event derivative markets, event derivatives, hype, hype cycle, prediction markets | Leave a comment

Prediction Markets + Collecting Forecasting = Hype?

Posted on November 19, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

California Institute of Technology economist Charles Plott: What you’re doing is collecting bits and pieces of information and aggregating it so we can watch it and understand what people know. People picked this up and called it the “wisdom of … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged Charles Plott, hype, prediction markets | Leave a comment

Keeping an eye on those Yahoo! research scientists

Posted on May 13, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

In my previous post, I told you what are the 3 main issues about prediction markets. (There are many more. Space limitation.) As far as I know, as of today, one group of researchers is very likely to produce some … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), People | Tagged Daniel Reeves, hype, Leslie Fine, prediction markets, Yahoo! Research | Leave a comment

The benefits of information aggregation mechanisms (IAMs), which encompass (enterprise) prediction markets, have been greatly exaggerated.

Posted on April 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Gartner ranked the benefits given by software for enterprise prediction markets as “moderate” (look up the 3rd line of the 3rd column): – Gartner – Hype Cycle for Social Software, 2008 – (PDF file): – California Institute of Technology economist … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Consulting | Tagged accuracy, Business, corporate prediction markets, enterprise prediction markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Gartner, hype, internal prediction markets, prediction accuracy, prediction markets, private prediction markets, social software | Leave a comment

Blogging Against The Hype

Posted on April 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

I have been blogging a lot about the damage done by some Ivory Tower economic professors and some commercial practitioners who exaggerate the benefits of the prediction markets. (Some people are not very happy with what I said. ) The … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Prediction Journalism | Tagged bloggers, Danny Sullivan, Gartner, hype, hype cycle, journalists, reporters, Search Engine Land | Leave a comment

Gartner: The “benefit” of enterprise prediction markets is “moderate” and “early users, who have begun to overestimate their accuracy and overall usefulness, are now somewhat disillusioned with the technology.”

Posted on April 15, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Gartner – Hype Cycle for Social Software, 2008 – (PDF file): Prediction Markets Analysis By: Matthew Cain; Nikos Drakos Definition: Prediction markets are betting mechanisms established to forecast the outcome of an ongoing issue of contention, such as quarterly sales … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged accuracy, Business, corporate prediction markets, enterprise prediction markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Gartner, hype, internal prediction markets, prediction accuracy, prediction markets, private prediction markets, social software | 2 Comments

Bursting the enterprise prediction market bubble

Posted on April 2, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

I blogged about Jed Christiansen’s EPM post, five minutes ago. I would like to attract your attention to Jed’s awesome comments. Jed comes out as a very reasoned and reasonable person. Good point for him.

Posted in Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Psychology | Tagged enterprise prediction markets, hype, Jed Christiansen, prediction markets | Leave a comment

Don’t believe the hype.

Posted on March 27, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Tagged Charles Plott, Collective Intelligence, hype, prediction markets, wisdom of crowds | Leave a comment

The hype is over. The party is over.

Posted on January 23, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

With respect to the 2008 US presidential elections, the prediction markets just mirrored the polls (and took a losing bet on Missouri). In hindsight, most of the media coverage about prediction markets prior to November 4, 2008, was pure hype … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), History, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Tagged 2008 US presidential elections, Forecasting (Science & Practice), hype, InTrade, polls, prediction markets | Leave a comment

Prediction markets are so yesterday.

Posted on December 23, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in Humor, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Tagged buzz, Humor, hype, marketing, prediction markets | Leave a comment

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