Tag Archives: House of Representatives

The US president argued today that an Al Qaeda-affiliated group in Iraq is linked tightly to the central Al Qaeda leadership.

Larry Downing / Reuters — George W. Bush is an imbécile. Who created ex nihilo this Iraq mess? — George W. Bush to be impeached by House of Representatives before end of his term in office — Static chart: — … Continue reading

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

U.S. legislation prediction markets at InTrade-TradeSports

8 hours ago on Midas Oracle, I talked about how “prediction markets on international, federal and state law-making politics” make sense. Well, turned out Chris Masse was prescient, once again. –> InTrade-TradeSports has just announced a set of U.S. legislation … Continue reading

Posted in Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Summary of the Tradesports DEMS.HOUSE.OVER29.5 issue, and the TS “credibility gap”

In the past weeks, there was something of a dust-up over TS’ handling of the DEMS.HOUSE.OVER29.5 contract. According to all American media, the Democrats needed 15 new House seats to gain control of the House of Representatives. And, indeed, in … Continue reading

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements, Market Expiry | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

DEM.HOUSE.OVER29.5 (Democrats to gain at least 30 House seats) – TradeSports blows another call. – Dixit Alex Forshaw

He writes: My application to be approved for the [TradeSports] forums has been pending for about a month, so I can’t complain about a contract via the forum. — The size of the Democrats’ gains, in the context in which … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements, Market Expiry | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Forecasting House Seats from Generic Congressional Polls

Via Andrew Gelman, this paper (PDF): Via computer simulation based on statistical analysis of historical data, we show how generic vote polls can be used to forecast the election outcome. We convert the results of generic vote polls into a … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Data), Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment