Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Hal Varian

Bo Cowgill’s boss = Hal Varian

UPDATE: Bo tells us: “Actually, that’s my desk right behind him, in the top picture.”
-
-

-
Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google – (PDF file – PDF file) – by Bo Cowgill, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitwewitz – 2008-01-06
-
Blip.TV –
-

Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google — VIDEO — Bo Cowgill on Google’s enterprise prediction markets — O’Reilly Money:Tech

Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google – (PDF file – PDF file) – by Bo Cowgill, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitwewitz – 2008-01-06
-
Via Daniel Horowitz (Business and Technology Consultant)
Blip.TV — (FLV file)
-
-

-
It’s cool.
-

-
Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google – (PDF file – PDF file) – [...]

BetFair-TradeFair hire Bo Cowgill in an attempt to improve their ranking in Google web search results.

BetFair:

BetFair CEO David Yu:
We’re delighted to welcome Bo Cowgill in HammerSmith. Bo had a fantastic career at Google, working, in the end, under Google’s Chief Economist Hal Varian. Throughout his years at Google, Bo acquired precious knowledge about the inner working of search engine technology, which will be helpful to BetFair-TradeFair for fighting annoying externalities: [...]

Do Google’s enterprise prediction markets work? — Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google

Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google – (PDF file – PDF file) – by Bo Cowgill, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitwewitz – 2008-01-06
-
VIDEO — Bo Cowgill on Google’s enterprise prediction markets — O’Reilly Money:Tech
Blip.TV — (FLV file)
-
-

-
-
I’ll first publish some excerpts from the paper on Google’s enterprise prediction markets (set up [...]

Hal Varian wants Bo Cowgill to dig hard the Google logs to discover how to improve their search algorithm.

Why data matters – by Hal Varian
-

Freakonomics interview.
Hal Varian’s previous post.

The network knows what the nodes don’t.

Roger Ehrenberg:
Prediction markets and elections, run by Eric Zitzewitz of Dartmouth. Eric ran though a slew of data looking at sports and financial prediction markets and compared it to election prediction markets. Bottom line, sports and financial prediction markets are highly efficient and closely track actual outcomes, while election prediction markets tend to systematically underprice [...]

Freakonomics did not quiz Bo Cowgill’s boss, Hal Varian, on prediction markets —triple alas.

Freakonomics interview. (I did ask, but they didn’t listen.)
Hal Varian’s post.

Bo Cowgill = Economics at Google

Is Bo Cowgill now working for Hal Varian (Google’s Chief Economist)? The answer is…
The answer is yes. Hal has a small team now which I am on. Hal is my boss and cube mate.

Previously: Hal Varian becomes Google’s chief economist. + Meet Hal Varian, Google’s Chief Economist.

Hal Varian becomes Google’s chief economist.


Via Greg Mankiw (whom you will have to read between the lines), this New York Times piece:
The View column will now be written by a rotating panel of outside economists. Besides Mr. Mankiw, it will include Alan Blinder, Judith Chevalier, Robert Shiller and Lester Thurow, as well as three of the economists who have [...]

EJSS-selected short list of news articles, research papers and books on prediction markets

NewsFutures:

Media Coverage

The CEO Guide To Prediction Markets (Latest case studies + tip sheet + podcast)
by Rachael King, July 7 2006

How to Decide? Create a Market
by Michael Totty, June 19, 2006

The Crowd Knows Best
by Serena Altschul, January 8, 2006

Wisdom of the crowd
by Jim Giles, November 17, 2005

Market Magic
by Alix Nyberg Stuart, November 1, 2005

Place Your Bets
by [...]

Search

Post Categories