Tag Archives: GOP senate

Barry Ritholtz blames the New Hampshire fiasco on two Red Herrings.

Posted on January 11, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Barry Ritholtz promised; he delivers. [...] Back to political futures: I suspect the traders at Intrade in 2006 missed the GOP Senate loss, because as a group, they themselves skewed away from the rest of the nation. The demographics of … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets | Tagged accuracy, Barry Ritholtz, Economists Justin Wolfers, Eric Ziztwewitz, event derivative markets, event derivatives, general US population, GOP senate, Justin Wolfers, New Hampshire, prediction markets, Republican Party, United States | 1 Comment

Were the InTrade prediction markets on the November 2006′s Senate elections accurate?

Posted on August 2, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Revisiting the issue, almost one year later. Lance Fortnow (University of Chicago) wrote: So how did those predictions go? In short you can say the markets predicted every individual race correctly but got the senate wrong, but let us look … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged GOP senate, Lance Fortnow, Missouri, Republican Party, Senate, University of Chicago, Virginia | Leave a comment

REPLY–Bo Cowgill (“Color me perplexed…”)

Posted on December 2, 2006 by Alex Forshaw

Bo “the Google guy” Cowgill unleashes a counter-broadside: COLOR ME PERPLEXED by Alex Foreshaw’s [snarky sic] rant about this recent TechCentralStation article. Alex [believes] the article was an ideological, intellectually dishonest knee-jerk defense of free markets. Did we read the … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry | Tagged Alex Foreshaw, George Allen, Google, GOP senate, Harold Ford, Jim Talent, John Tester, Lance Fortnow, Missouri, Montana, Republican Party, Senate, USD, Virginia | Leave a comment

SCIENTIST DAVE PENNOCK IS LAUGHING ALL THE WAY TO HIS NEW YORK BANK.

Posted on November 10, 2006 by Chris F. Masse

… Psstt… TradeSports traders… Wanna be rich?… Do like David Pennock: Get a PhD… with a major in probabilities… Although TradeSportsâ€™s individual state predictions and overall Senate prediction were entirely consistent, one might argue that traders underestimated the degree of … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged DAVE PENNOCK, David Pennock, GOP senate, scientist, Senate | Leave a comment

TradeSports Prediction Map Post Mortem – Professor Lance Fortnow on the record

Posted on November 9, 2006 by Chris F. Masse

He writes: So how did those predictions go? In short you can say the markets predicted every individual race correctly but got the senate wrong, but let us look a little more carefully. At about 9 AM CST on the … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged GOP senate, Lance Fortnow, Missouri, Professor, Republican Party, Senate, Virginia | Leave a comment