Tag Archives: global warming prediction markets

Paul Hewitt on Rajiv Sethi on Nate Silver on Robin Hanson on climate change prediction markets

Posted on December 2, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Measuring Decision Market Accuracy

Posted in Analysis (Market Proposals), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged betting markets, climate change, climate change prediction markets, event derivative markets, global warming, global warming prediction markets, long-term prediction markets, prediction markets | 1 Comment

On Prediction Markets for Climate Change

Posted on December 1, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Rajiv Sethi on Robin Hanson and Nate Silver’s climate change prediction markets.

Posted in Analysis (Market Proposals), Analysis (Meta), Betting, Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged climate change, climate change prediction markets, global warming, global warming prediction markets, prediction markets | 1 Comment

Caveat Bettor is still into global warming prediction markets.

Posted on July 15, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Caveat Bettor Spot the global warming prediction markets on the right side. Cav, by the way, congrats for your PageRank of 5/10.

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged Caveat Bettor, climate change, climate change prediction markets, Earth temperature, global warming, global warming prediction markets, prediction markets | Leave a comment

InTrade needs to specify the expiry conditions more precisely.

Posted on August 13, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Caveat Bettor has been making that remark for months. The InTrade managers are either autistic or totally crÃ©tin. -

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements | Tagged climate change, climate change prediction markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, global warming, global warming prediction markets, InTrade, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets | 1 Comment

Caveat Bettor…

Posted on July 13, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

… that one is for U. -

Posted in Analysis (Market Proposals), Exchanges & Markets | Tagged climate change, climate change prediction markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, global warming, global warming prediction markets, prediction markets | 1 Comment

What does climate scientist James Annan think of InTrade’s global warming prediction markets?

Posted on March 17, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Wanna know? Simple: ask him about those. Which I did. Hmmm…. that is interesting, but an annual prediction is closer to weather forecasting than global warming. Jan and Feb are already v cold so a low price is probably fair … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Science | Tagged climate change, climate scientist, Earth, global warming, global warming prediction markets, James Annan, oceans, temperature, USD, weather forecasting | 1 Comment

Intrade lists Global Warming Contracts!

Posted on March 14, 2008 by Caveat Bettor

The announcement is here. I asked for them at the end of 2006/beginning of 2007 (the post was on Jan 10 2007, but I think I requested them first). A conversation at Midas Oracle, a few months later. The Contract … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged Adam, Adam Siegel, climate change, global warming, global warming futures, global warming prediction markets, Goddard Institute for Space Studies | 4 Comments