Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: global warming prediction markets

Paul Hewitt on Rajiv Sethi on Nate Silver on Robin Hanson on climate change prediction markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on December 2, 2009 — 1 Comment

Measuring Decision Market Accuracy

Posted in Analysis (Market Proposals), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged , , , , , ,

On Prediction Markets for Climate Change

Written by Chris F. Masse on December 1, 2009 — 1 Comment

Rajiv Sethi on Robin Hanson and Nate Silver’s climate change prediction markets.

Posted in Analysis (Market Proposals), Analysis (Meta), Betting, Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged , , ,

Caveat Bettor is still into global warming prediction markets.

Written by Chris F. Masse on July 15, 2009 — Leave a Comment

Caveat Bettor
Spot the global warming prediction markets on the right side.
Cav, by the way, congrats for your PageRank of 5/10.

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged , , , , ,

InTrade needs to specify the expiry conditions more precisely.

Written by Chris F. Masse on August 13, 2008 — 1 Comment

Caveat Bettor has been making that remark for months.
The InTrade managers are either autistic or totally crétin.
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Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements | Also tagged , , , , , , ,

Caveat Bettor…

Written by Chris F. Masse on July 13, 2008 — 1 Comment

… that one is for U.
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Posted in Analysis (Market Proposals), Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged , , , , ,

What does climate scientist James Annan think of InTrade’s global warming prediction markets?

Written by Chris F. Masse on March 17, 2008 — 1 Comment

Wanna know? Simple: ask him about those. Which I did.

Hmmm…. that is interesting, but an annual prediction is closer to weather forecasting than global warming. Jan and Feb are already v cold so a low price is probably fair (it’s trading $20 per $100 as I write).
I should add that the “probably fair” is a [...]

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Science | Also tagged , , , , , , , ,

Intrade lists Global Warming Contracts!

Written by Caveat Bettor on March 14, 2008 — 4 Comments

The announcement is here.
I asked for them at the end of 2006/beginning of 2007 (the post was on Jan 10 2007, but I think I requested them first). A conversation at Midas Oracle, a few months later.
The Contract Rules need more precise specification. While Intrade did use my suggestion of the Goddard Institute [...]

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged , , , , ,

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