Global Warming Prediction Markets

Hmmm…. that is interesting, but an annual prediction is closer to weather forecasting than global warming. Jan and Feb are already v cold so a low price is probably fair (it’s trading $20 per $100 as I write).

I should add that the “probably fair” is a very rough guess, not based on any careful calculation. The 5th hottest year is about +0.55 in their units (anomaly from 1951-80 average), Jan and Feb are at +0.19 (ave) so it will take an average of .62 for the remainder of the year…which has happened precisely once before, in 2005.

James Annan’s blog

Tags: climate change, Earth, global warming, global warming prediction markets, James Annan, oceans, temperature, weather forecasting

Intrade lists Global Warming Contracts!

Caveat Bettor March 14th, 2008

The announcement is here.

I asked for them at the end of 2006/beginning of 2007 (the post was on Jan 10 2007, but I think I requested them first). A conversation at Midas Oracle, a few months later.

The Contract Rules need more precise specification. While Intrade did use my suggestion of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies data to value the contract, I think Intrade must specifically state that the “J-D” January-December annual mean temperature series is being used, and on either the Global Mean Monthly data set, or else the Global-Land Ocean Temperature Index data set.

I personally prefer the latter, as ocean temperatures play a huge role in ice melts as well as other weather phenomena (e.g. hurricane frequency and intensity, even this political advocacy group pretending to be scientific says so). In any case, the two series are generally correlated well, so I have no strong preference which one Intrade specifies.

I used the latter of course, in working with Adam Siegel and the folks at Inkling Markets to create the very first Global Warming prediction market.

Cross-posted from Caveat Bettor.

Tags: climate change, global warming, global warming futures, global warming prediction markets