Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: George Mason University

George Mason University is *not* in the top 50 graduate schools of economics.

US News & World Report – Rankings
GMU is in the second tier, not even ranked numerically.
Maybe some of the GMU professors spend too much time blogging (as opposed to producing fundamental and applied research), and maybe some of them spend too much time putting up the show. They should focus on improving the standing of [...]

Professors as circus animals

Twisted But Valuable Comment Of The Day — Growthology Edition

Enterprise Prediction Markets = The wisdom of crowds comes to the enterprise.

Here are short excerpts of the Forrester report on enterprise prediction markets and companies that provide software for enterprise prediction markets.
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The Forrester executive summary:
The “wisdom of crowds” is capturing the attention of corporate strategists across the globe, and, as a result, many are now looking to prediction markets — speculative markets in which traders collectively [...]

Zotero [zoh-TAIR-oh] is a free, easy-to-use FireFox extension to help you collect, manage, and cite your research sources. It lives right where you do your work — in the web browser itself.

Robin Hanson’s university (George Mason University) is sued by Reuters-Thomson for over $10 million for publishing Zotero.
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Zotero:

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Zotero Handbook: PDF file
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Science comes to the rescue of the “leading academics” suffering lapses of memory —those who, on Monday, signed on to be on the board of the Prediction Market Industry Association, which is supposed to lobby for the legalization of InTrade’s real-money prediction markets in the United States of America —and, on the next Tuesday, signed Bob’s puritan and sterile petition.

CX717 = “memory pills”
US scientists have invented a pill that can boost memory.
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Invented by Dr Gary Lynch from the University of California.
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John Delaney (CEO of InTrade) – (InTrade PDF file – CFTC PDF file):
Nearly all leading academics, not known for their attraction to unanimity, have publicly supported event markets. A great majority of these academics [...]

Pssttt… Did I tell you that I like InTrade CEO John Delaney’s comment to the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets)? I can’t remember whether I did tell you that already. (I do suffer memory lapses, sometimes. I know it’s a common affliction, because I see that Robin Hanson and Justin Wolfers, just before they signed Bob’s puritan and sterile petition, completely forgot that they were on the board of the Prediction Market Industry Association, which is supposed to lobby for the legalization of InTrade’s real-money prediction markets in the United States of America. A lapse in memory, probably.)

John Delaney (CEO of InTrade) – (InTrade PDF file – CFTC PDF file):
Nearly all leading academics, not known for their attraction to unanimity, have publicly supported event markets. A great majority of these academics have been supplied with Intrade market data in the past, a service that Intrade intends to continue, for all study leads [...]

What InTrade CEO John Delaney told the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets)

John Delaney (CEO of InTrade) – (InTrade PDF file – CFTC PDF file):
July 4th 2008
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Three Lafayette Centre
1155 21st Street NW
Washington, DC 20581
U.S.A.
Attention: Office of the Secretariat
RE: “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts”
To Whom it May Concern:
It is an honour for me as Chief Executive Officer of Intrade [...]

What Robin Hanson told the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets)

Robin Hanson:
Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 10:12:46 -0400
To: secretary@cftc.gov
From: Robin Hanson <rhanson@gmu.edu>
Subject: Comment on “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts”
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I am an event market innovator, having published the first detailed discussions envisioning their widespread application, having designed a widely used trading mechanism (the market scoring rule), and having co-developed the first [...]

The best researchers on prediction markets

CFM: Scholars
Check that CFM page for updates. And contact me so I can make additions to the list. (I’ll then re-publish that updated list on Midas Oracle.)
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Michael Abramowicz – Michael B. Abramowicz – (Law School, George Washington University, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
Bernd H. Ankenbrand – Bernd Ankenbrand – (Lecturer, Witten/Herdecke [...]

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