Tag Archives: expertise

Keeping score of experts’ forecasts — [VIDEO]

Posted on December 12, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Philip Tetlock:

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How to silence a Nobel Prize winning economist: Ask him about the economy. — [VIDEO]

Posted on October 17, 2011 by Chris F. Masse
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Experts trading on prediction markets

Posted on January 26, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Chris Hibbert: Top tier sports, national elections, and Hollywood releases are all arenas in which all the information one might analyze is already pretty much public. There are many methods for predicting these outcomes, and I wouldn’t argue that prediction … Continue reading →

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That’s a good one.

Posted on March 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Dr. Tetlock is an expert, which by his own research would seem to indicate that he is probably wrong! Excellent.

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Who needs pundits’ track records when we have prediction markets?

Posted on March 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Emile Servan-Schreiber: Mr. Kristof, if you want to keep yourself accountable and track the success of your predictions in the long run and in real-time, why not simply participate in a prediction market such as NewsFutures? You could suggest that … Continue reading →

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Track records + Prediction markets — Will they mix up well?

Posted on March 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Yet another reason why we should *not* call it the “Prediction Market Institute”… Nicholas Kristof: So what about a system to evaluate us prognosticators? Professor Tetlock suggests that various foundations might try to create a “trans-ideological Consumer Reports for punditry,” … Continue reading →

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Prediction markets feed on facts and expertise.

Posted on January 15, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Via Yahoo! research scientist David Pennock of Odd Head and YooPick, the dear honorable Duncan Watts: In part because of disappointing findings such as this, an increasingly popular substitute for expert opinions are so-called “prediction markets,” in which individuals buy … Continue reading →

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