Tag Archives: event derivative contracts

InTrade CEO John Delaney refused to improve the fairness of the trading on his Ireland-based event derivative exchange.

InTrade — US.GOVT.HEALTHPLAN.DEC09 One InTrade trader, in October 2009: The four re-definitions that have (so far) been necessary during the 3-month life of the US.GOVT.HEALTHPLAN.DEC09 contracts have brought to my attention that Intrade, to the best of my knowledge, does … Continue reading

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The health-care debacle on InTrade

[The Intrade event derivative traders] “are getting more and more alienated by the actions and judgments of Intrade’s management.” Is InTrade mis-managed? Many people are starting to think so, apparently. Still think that Chris Masse of Midas Oracle is too … Continue reading

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Prediction markets: Sticking to the letter of the contract VERSUS Interpreting intent

Chris Hibbert (of Zocalo): I disagree, Chris. Much experience on FX has shown that interesting questions (those that aren’t routine repetitions of previous questions) often result in realities that diverge from the obvious expectations of nearly everyone involved in describing … Continue reading

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Were prediction markets useless during the H1N1 breakout?

Lance Fortnow: Might this be an instance where prediction markets greatly out-performed the experts? In short, no. There were relevant markets but two big problems: No one thought to create a market for the number of flu cases over a … Continue reading

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Prediction markets are about lowering transaction costs. That’s how sports come in.

I found John Blank’s letter to the CFTC (discovered by Mike Giberson) as interesting as Vernon Smith’s one. Here’s the PDF file —in case you missed it. – I would like to focus on John Blank’s 3-point introduction. In short, … Continue reading

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What public interests are served by event contracts?

Comments continue to trickle in at the U.S. CFTC, in response to the agencies request for comments on its “concept paper on event contracts.” You can find the comments posted so far, all seven of them, on the CFTC’s website. … Continue reading

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