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Tag Archives: event derivative contracts
InTrade CEO John Delaney refused to improve the fairness of the trading on his Ireland-based event derivative exchange.
InTrade — US.GOVT.HEALTHPLAN.DEC09 One InTrade trader, in October 2009: The four re-definitions that have (so far) been necessary during the 3-month life of the US.GOVT.HEALTHPLAN.DEC09 contracts have brought to my attention that Intrade, to the best of my knowledge, does … Continue reading
Posted in Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements
Tagged betting markets, event derivative contracts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, fairness, health care, health care reform, InTrade, prediction market contracts, prediction markets, trading, US.GOVT.HEALTHPLAN.DEC09
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The health-care debacle on InTrade
[The Intrade event derivative traders] “are getting more and more alienated by the actions and judgments of Intrade’s management.” Is InTrade mis-managed? Many people are starting to think so, apparently. Still think that Chris Masse of Midas Oracle is too … Continue reading
Posted in Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements, Market Prices & Probabilities, Predictions - Forecasts
Tagged event derivative contracts, health care, health care reform, InTrade, John Delaney, prediction markets, US health care
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Were prediction markets useless during the H1N1 breakout?
Lance Fortnow: Might this be an instance where prediction markets greatly out-performed the experts? In short, no. There were relevant markets but two big problems: No one thought to create a market for the number of flu cases over a … Continue reading
Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements
Tagged betting markets, CDC, Center For Desease Control, Collective Forecasting, event derivative contracts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, H1N1, Influenza A (H1N1), prediction markets, swine flu
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