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Tag Archives: error
The Robin Hanson manipulation papers make unrealistic assumptions, but it’s not like prediction markets are a bad idea…!!…
In terms of unrealistic assumptions in Robin Hanson’s series of papers on manipulation, the major ones have been out there since at least 2004. Despite some limited evidence, the insistence on traders needing to know the direction of manipulation isn’t … Continue reading →
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchange & Market Designs, Exchange Liquidity, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities
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Tagged Collective Forecasting, error, long-term markets, long-term prediction markets, manipulation, manipulations, market manipulation, market manipulations, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, self-fulfilling prophecy
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