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Tag Archives: electability

P(election) = P(nomination) * P(election conditional on nomination)

Posted on January 27, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

P(election conditional on nomination) = P(election) / P(nomination)

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Explainers | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, electability, Politics, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections | Leave a comment

Electability of Hillary Clinton according to InTrade-TradeSports = 65%

Posted on December 12, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Eddy Elfenbein at Crossing Wall Street: I written about this topic before but one of the things I find fascinating about finance is how you can use markets for two items to create an “implied market” for a third. This … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged Crossing Wall Street, Eddy Elfenbein, electability, Finance, Ford, Gerald Ford, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, Jimmy Carter, prediction markets, Republican Party, Ronald Reagan, Rudy Giuliani, US political elections, US President, US presidential elections | 2 Comments
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