Tag Archives: efficient markets

Burton Malkiel on the theory of efficient markets and index funds. – [VIDEO]

[Download this post to watch the embedded video if your feed reader does not show it to you.] Wikipedia: Efficient-market hypothesis.

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One of the key reasons why timing and exact prediction is so difficult is the futility of conventional cause-effect thinking in complex adaptive systems.

Efficient Markets and Pattern Predictions Via Sean Park

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The “efficient markets” hypothesis is dead.

An interesting piece in this morning’s FT by Gillian Tett. The Chartered Financial Analyst Institute, which for many years had taught the so-called “efficient markets” hypothesis to thousands of students, asked its members for the first time if they trusted … Continue reading

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Defining Probability in Prediction Markets

The New Hampshire Democratic primary was one of the few(?) events in which prediction markets did not give an “accurate” forecast for the winner. In a typical “accurate” prediction, the candidate that has the contract with the highest price ends … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Explainers | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments