Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: efficient markets

One of the key reasons why timing and exact prediction is so difficult is the futility of conventional cause-effect thinking in complex adaptive systems.

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 7, 2010 — Leave a Comment

Efficient Markets and Pattern Predictions
Via Sean Park

Posted in Economics, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Also tagged , , , ,

The “efficient markets” hypothesis is dead.

Written by Niall O'Connor on June 16, 2009 — 2 Comments

An interesting piece in this morning’s FT by Gillian Tett.
The Chartered Financial Analyst Institute, which for many years had taught the so-called “efficient markets” hypothesis to thousands of students, asked its members for the first time if they trusted in “market efficiency” – and discovered that more than two-thirds of respondents no longer believed that [...]

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Economics, Finance | Also tagged , ,

Defining Probability in Prediction Markets

Written by Panos Ipeirotis on January 13, 2008 — 6 Comments

The New Hampshire Democratic primary was one of the few(?) events in which prediction markets did not give an “accurate” forecast for the winner. In a typical “accurate” prediction, the candidate that has the contract with the highest price ends up winning the election.
This result, combined with an increasing interest/hype about the predictive accuracy of [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Explainers | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

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