Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Donald Luskin

2 Democratic-leaning columnists who used to deride the prediction markets are now over-quoting them —now that those prediction markets are predicting a landslide for Barack Obama come November 2008.

- Paul Krugman – Today: A real little PM fanboy. – Yesterday: Overly critical. (See Eric Zitzewitz’s comment.)
- Daniel Gross – Today: A real little PM fanboy. (See towards the end.) – Yesterday: Overly critical.
- As for the Republican hack who, during the 2004 and 2006 US elections, was a living publicity for InTrade-TradeSports… nada.

Justin Wolfers should have his own Wikipedia entry.

Any Wikipedian out there willing to start off his page?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justin_Wolfers
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Robin Hanson, Tyler Cowen, Steve Levitt, and even Don Luskin and Robert Scoble, have their own Wikipedia entry. Why not Wolfers???… I realized that when I updated my “acknowledgments” page:
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Acknowledgments
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- Friedrich August Von Hayek (an economist who introduced, among other things, the concept of the market [...]

I can be bombastic sometimes, but I can also be polite and respectful at other times.

Caveat Bettor,
In my post, I said that I “respect” him “as a Wall Street professional and as a libertarian blogger.”
How more “agreeable” should I have been???…
On top of that, his name is listed here.
As for responding to him, I will do once he links back to that piece of mine —and not to an empty [...]

Donald Luskin outputs a bad explainer on prediction markets.

Firstly, I’d like to say that I respect Donald Luskin as a Wall Street professional and as a libertarian blogger. But I think that his explainer is too simplistic.
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Not a single word on the concept of probabilistic prediction:
The financial incentive to get it right, and the ability to draw on bettors from around the world [...]

Who did best in explaining the prediction markets to the lynching crowd?

After the New Hampshire fiasco, 16 18 people came to defend the prediction markets, so far. So far, the best takes are from:

George Tziralis
Robin Hanson
Jonathan Kennedy
and I’ll give the 4th spot to a combo, mixing takes from John Tierney, Adam Siegel (surprisingly pertinent –I bet he is on a fish diet, post Christmas [...]

Prediction markets are forecasting tools of convenience that feed on advanced indicators.

Why were the political prediction markets so wrong about Barak Obama and Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire?
…asks Slate’s Daniel Gross —via Mister Usability (Alex Kirtland), who needs to go and get his own gravatar.
So, I’ve been watching the action in one of the political futures markets this evening, Intrade. And the action in this prediction [...]

Can you think of another name to add in this list?

Acknowledments
- Friedrich August von Hayek (an economist who introduced, among other things, the concept of the market as an information aggregation tool in The Use of Knowledge in Society, and the 1974 co-winner of the Nobel Prize in economics);
- Professor Vernon Smith (an experimental economics pioneer, and, as such, the 2002 co-winner of the Nobel [...]

Has Donald Luskin given up on InTrade-TradeSports?

I haven’t seen any mention of InTrade, on his blog, since March 2007.

The mainstream media try to silence Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul. It’s a giant conspiracy.


The two-sentence excerpt run by NBC News (Brian Williams – Thursday, May 17, 2007):
They attack us because we’ve been over there. We’ve been bombing Iraq for 10 years.
And then Alan Greenspan’s spouse cut Ron Paul abruptly to give air time to Rudy Giuliani, who caricatured Ron Paul’s views and crashed him like he was aiding [...]

US Libertarian Ron Paul’s statements in the May 3, 2007’s debate among the Republican presidential aspirants.

Via Donald Luskin, US Libertarian Ron Paul’s statements in the May 3, 2007’s debate among the Republican presidential aspirants.

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