Tag Archives: Department of Defense

Terrorism Futures

Justin Wolfers: It is the accuracy of market-generated forecasts that led the Department of Defense to propose running prediction markets on geopolitical events. While political rhetoric about “terrorism futures” led the plug to be pulled on that particular experiment… Justin … Continue reading

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John Delaney of inTrade-TradeSports: The North Korea Missile prediction market was a P.R. disaster.

Jed Christiansen: It’s obvious that John wants InTrade to be much more successful than it has been, but he still clearly believes that InTrade can still be very successful. He mentioned that one key in their business is market makers; … Continue reading

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BETFAIR DOES FIGHT VIGOROUSLY ANY ATTEMPTS AT MONEY LAUDERING.

Fascinating. I have just searched Google News for “BetFair” and I have counted only 4 news publications (and small ones, with tiny readerships) that have cited the BetFair rebuttal, since July 11, 2007 (the day the BetFair press release was … Continue reading

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The truth on the 2000–2003 US DoD’s DARPA’s IAO’s FutureMAP/Policy Analysis Market project.

The Policy Analysis Market project was badmouthed last week by Bruce Hansen of The Register, so I’m publishing here some excerpts of Robin Hanson’s verbatim. — Robin Hanson: [...] It fell to me to explore possible application areas, and after … Continue reading

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NewsFutures’ Emile Servan-Schreiber: Les marchés de prédiction sont un média d’un autre type.

Prediction markets are a media of another type. Le Figaro: Le fondateur et patron du site Newsfutures.com explique pourquoi les marchés de prédiction font souvent mieux que les sondages. LEFIGARO.FR : -Comment expliquez vous la pertinence des paris en ligne … Continue reading

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A June 2006 piece on HedgeStreet I overlooked at the time

Mark Longo (PDF): Event futures are exciting products that allow customers to speculate on the outcome of specific events. The possibilities for these powerful products are limitless. [...] In an attempt to refocus its efforts on the futures markets, the … Continue reading

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NewsFutures’s explainer on prediction markets

No definition, but there’s an example, here —static, alas. (((In passing, I see that NewsFutures “will use the Brookings Institution’s Iraq Index as a source to measure troop levels.” Good. But what it they fail to deliver, like the US … Continue reading

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The TradeSports’s NKM scandal vs. the BetFair’s 2006-Senate case

JC Kommer was prompt to comment on my 2006-Senate piece: Double standard Mr Masse. Betfair is doing exactly the same thing that Tradesports in the NKM “scandal”, going for the literal reading of the rules as they should. My Answer … Continue reading

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U.S. Intelligence Community creates an internal Wikipedia. Will they use prediction markets, next?

Intellipedia: 16 U.S. spy agencies and their 3,600 intelligence professionals will now be using a custom Wikipedia. My Questions: Are (public or internal, real-money or play-money) prediction markets next? Of course, I won’t mention the Policy Analysis Market. Let’s be … Continue reading

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