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- Steven Krivit continues to trash Andrea Rossi and his LENR technology. — [LINK]
- Interview with Adam Lashinsky — [VIDEO]
- Why some people are more innovative — [VIDEO]
- Forbes editor deciphers Steve Jobs’s Apple. — [VIDEO]
- Jason Ruspini rebuts Eric Zitzewitz on the regulation of political prediction markets. — [COMMENT]
- Eric Zitzewitz petitions the CFTC in favor of real-money prediction markets about politics. — [TEXT]
- Global warming is a big scam. — [LINK]
- A Swarm of Nano Quadrotors — [VIDEO]
- The Tragedy of the Commons — [VIDEO]
- Guy Kawasaki on Steve Jobs — [VIDEO]
- Inside Apple — [VIDEO]
- Mitt Romney’s taxes — [LINKS]
- A critique of Apple’s multimedia iBooks. — [LINK]
- Does Apple lack “generosity”? — [LINKS]
- Apple Education Push — [LINKS]
- Water Crystals — [DOCUMENT]
- Apple’s e-book software will allow publishers to make textbooks more interactive. — [LINKS + VIDEO]
- Alain Soral is France’s most dangerous intellectual… (dangerous for the French plutocrats, that is). — [VIDEO]
- Computers thru time — [CHART]
- NASA has finally understood the theorical basis of LENR (low-energy nuclear reactions). — [VIDEO]
Tag Archives: DAVE PENNOCK
CFTC Oversight May Not be a Boon.
I want to quibble with one of Dave Pennock’s comments on the CFTC request. Pennock wrote “It’s not often that an industry in its infancy cries out for more government oversight.” It’s actually quite common. The term in the economics … Continue reading
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Regulations
Tagged BetFair, CFTC, Chris Hibbert, DAVE PENNOCK, David Pennock, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event futures markets, innovation, laws, prediction markets, public prediction markets, public relations problems, Regulations, socially valuable prediction markets, TradeSports
20 Comments
BetFair’s brand-new matching-bet logic is endorsed by the Chairman of the Midas Oracle Advisory Board.
- The Sporting Exchange executives and shareholders will be happy to know that economist Michael Giberson has given his stamp of approval to BetFair’s brand-new matching-bet logic. Wow. They’ll open Champagne bottles in HammerSmith, tonite, when they know that. If … Continue reading
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Mechanism Designs
Tagged bet matching, bet matching logic, BetFair, chairman, Chris Hibbert, DAVE PENNOCK, economist, market designs, Market Trading, Michael Giberson, Midas Oracle Advisory Board, prediction markets, Queen, traders, United Kingdom
31 Comments
The Wisdom Of Crowds: James Surowiecki on the predictive accuracy of the horse race betting markets
With your permission ( ), I am re-publishing here in one blog post the two comments from James Surowiecki, so the Midas Oracle readers who don’t subscribe to comments can see it. [...] The crowd of bettors at the racetrack … Continue reading
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Betting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Forecasting (Science & Practice)
Tagged author, Daniel Reeves, DAVE PENNOCK, financial columnist, Google, Herbert Fallin, James Surowiecki, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Niall O'Connor, Royal Statistical Society, The New Yorker, XML
2 Comments
Conditional and Combinatorial Betting
After people have used Prediction Markets for a while and have gotten used to their ability to provide forecasts, they start thinking about different scenarios. Who would be the best Republican to face Clinton? How are the prospects for a market boom or crash effected by the winner of the election? How will poverty be affected by a proposed World Bank program? These kinds of questions can be posed in a number of ways using Prediction Markets. Markets can allow betting on conditional (if) or conjunctive (and) questions. Either one can be used to answer the what if questions, but they provide different choices to the bettors, and some make it easier for observers to decode the answers. Continue reading
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Market Makers (Automated), Mechanism Designs, Software
Tagged Clinton, cross-product, DAVE PENNOCK, Eric Zitzewitz, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Justin Wolfers, Osama bin Laden, Peter McCluskey, prediction markets, Prime Minister, Robin Hanson, Todd Proebsting, USD
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Integrating Book Orders and Market Makers
Dave Pennock gave a gentle introduction on his blog to the Market Scoring Rule invented by Robin Hanson. In the comments, Sid asked for an explanation of how to integrate the MSR with an order book. Dave asked me privately if I’d be willing to tackle that, and this post is the result. Continue reading
SCIENTIST DAVE PENNOCK IS LAUGHING ALL THE WAY TO HIS NEW YORK BANK.
… Psstt… TradeSports traders… Wanna be rich?… Do like David Pennock: Get a PhD… with a major in probabilities… Although TradeSports’s individual state predictions and overall Senate prediction were entirely consistent, one might argue that traders underestimated the degree of … Continue reading