Tag Archives: DAVE PENNOCK
CFTC Oversight May Not be a Boon.
I want to quibble with one of Dave Pennock’s comments on the CFTC request. Pennock wrote “It’s not often that an industry in its infancy cries out for more government oversight.”
It’s actually quite common. The term in the economics literature that includes this is regulatory capture. When there’s a regulatory body specific [...]
BetFair’s brand-new matching-bet logic is endorsed by the Chairman of the Midas Oracle Advisory Board.
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The Sporting Exchange executives and shareholders will be happy to know that economist Michael Giberson has given his stamp of approval to BetFair’s brand-new matching-bet logic. Wow. They’ll open Champagne bottles in HammerSmith, tonite, when they know that. If that’s not an ebullient endorsement, then I’m the Queen of England.
From the description you quote [*], [...]
The Wisdom Of Crowds: James Surowiecki on the predictive accuracy of the horse race betting markets
With your permission ( ), I am re-publishing here in one blog post the two comments from James Surowiecki, so the Midas Oracle readers who don’t subscribe to comments can see it.
[...] The crowd of bettors at the racetrack is not predicting which horse will win. It’s predicting the odds of each horse [...]
Conditional and Combinatorial Betting
After people have used Prediction Markets for a while and have gotten used to their ability to provide forecasts, they start thinking about different scenarios. Who would be the best Republican to face Clinton? How are the prospects for a market boom or crash effected by the winner of the election? How will poverty be affected by a proposed World Bank program? These kinds of questions can be posed in a number of ways using Prediction Markets. Markets can allow betting on conditional (if) or conjunctive (and) questions. Either one can be used to answer the what if questions, but they provide different choices to the bettors, and some make it easier for observers to decode the answers.
Integrating Book Orders and Market Makers
Dave Pennock gave a gentle introduction on his blog to the Market Scoring Rule invented by Robin Hanson. In the comments, Sid asked for an explanation of how to integrate the MSR with an order book. Dave asked me privately if I’d be willing to tackle that, and this post is the result.
SCIENTIST DAVE PENNOCK IS LAUGHING ALL THE WAY TO HIS NEW YORK BANK.
… Psstt… TradeSports traders… Wanna be rich?… Do like David Pennock: Get a PhD… with a major in probabilities…
Although TradeSports’s individual state predictions and overall Senate prediction were entirely consistent, one might argue that traders underestimated the degree of dependence (correlation) among states’ elections. In fact, I made a few bucks selling the “GOP Senate [...]
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