Tag Archives: Daily Kos

It wasn’t about the predictions.

Posted on November 15, 2008 by Jason Ruspini

Let’s not confuse media visibility with utility. Aside from the depressed Obama-to-win prices on one exchange, prediction market and polling aggregation results for the 2008 election were essentially the same using squared errors. Despite his insane schematics, Emile Servan-Schreiber has … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Psychology | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 10 Comments

RE: Alleged manipulation of the Hillary Clinton event derivative at InTrade-TradeSports

Posted on August 4, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Does a rich trader, highly partisan and highly convinced that Hillary will make it, care about the price? If he/she has persuaded himself/herself that the expiry will bring $100, then buying the Hillary Clinton event derivative at $40 will yield … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Data), Analysis (Market Calls), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Market Trading | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment