Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: crude oil

Jim Rogers on commodities, the commodity bubble, gold, the gold bubble, crude oil, the crude oil bubble, China, the China bubble — etc.

Via Joe Weisenthal:

CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts

CFTC – (PDF file):
CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts
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SUMMARY:
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (Commission or CFTC) is soliciting comment on the appropriate regulatory treatment of financial agreements offered by markets commonly referred to as event, prediction, or information markets. \1\ For ease of reference and to avoid classification issues, these [...]

Professor Koleman Strumpf tells CNN that a prediction market, by essence, can’t predict an upset.

CNN:
FOREMAN: I’ve got something I want you to take a look at. Look at this. It could be the price of a stock or a mutual fund. It isn’t. It’s the odds that a particular candidate, the red here is Hillary Clinton, who will become president of the United States. It’s called the predictive market. [...]

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