Tag Archives: Chris Wlezien

Damped polls are superior to prediction markets as election predictors.

Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election Predictors? – (PDF file) – by Chris Wlezien and Robert Erikson – 2007 Abstract Election markets have been praised for their ability to forecast election outcomes, and to forecast better than … Continue reading

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Damped polls outperform prediction markets.

Forecasting Principles: Damping polls Evidence from the literature shows that polls, in particular early in the campaign, are not reliable in predicting election outcomes but tend to overestimate the extent to which a candidate leads. To deal with these uncertainties, … Continue reading

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The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets Workshop starts today.

In a few hours, the workshop The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets: Economic and Financial Implications starts at Palm Desert, California. The quality of presenters is excellent and the workshop has succeeded in attracting high level contributions. The program … Continue reading

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