Tag Archives: Chris Wlezien
Damped polls are superior to prediction markets as election predictors.
Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election Predictors? – (PDF file) – by Chris Wlezien and Robert Erikson – 2007
Abstract
Election markets have been praised for their ability to forecast election outcomes, and to forecast better than trial-heat polls. This paper challenges that optimistic assessment of election markets, based on an analysis of Iowa [...]
Damped polls outperform prediction markets.
Forecasting Principles:
Damping polls
Evidence from the literature shows that polls, in particular early in the campaign, are not reliable in predicting election outcomes but tend to overestimate the extent to which a candidate leads. To deal with these uncertainties, we added a damping factor to the RCP poll average. Damping is used to make forecasts more [...]
The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets Workshop starts today.
In a few hours, the workshop The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets: Economic and Financial Implications starts at Palm Desert, California.
The quality of presenters is excellent and the workshop has succeeded in attracting high level contributions. The program and complete list of papers to be presented are available here, while directly related to prediction [...]
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