Tag Archives: Bob Hahn

Prediction markets didn’t “revolutionize” decision-making —and will never do. However, they are a nice condiment to the classic forecasting toolkit.

I have spent several hours re-reading the 2004 AEI-Brookings book, “Information Markets” (by which they mean “prediction markets”). It is a collection of un-enlightening research articles —except for the IEM article, which is outstanding, both on the factual and theoretical … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Should AEI-Brookings have allowed Midas Oracle to re-publish the text of the economists’ petition on prediction markets?

New York Times: Content Makers Are Accused of Exaggerating Copyright An association of computer and communication companies, including Google, Microsoft and Yahoo, on Wednesday accused several professional sports leagues, book publishers and other media companies of misleading and threatening consumers … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Business, Ethics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Web-based petition on prediction markets, anyone??

Take a look at Robin Hanson’s online petition on health care. Even David Perry (of Consensus Point, if that’s him) signed. Any idea, folks??? Previous: Bob Hahn turns the PETITION into a CONSENSUS. + Steve Levitt of Freakonomics: I WON’T … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Market Proposals), Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Bob Hahn turns the PETITION into a CONSENSUS.

Bob Hahn turns lead into gold. — Via Google’s Bo Cowgill, Robert Hahn and Paul Tetlock’s Op-Ed in the Wall Street Journal (mirror at AEI-Brookings – mirror at AEI): [...] These markets often predict more accurately than experts. Why? They … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Regulations | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments