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- Jason Ruspini rebuts Eric Zitzewitz on the regulation of political prediction markets. — [COMMENT]
- Eric Zitzewitz petitions the CFTC in favor of real-money prediction markets about politics. — [TEXT]
- Global warming is a big scam. — [LINK]
- A Swarm of Nano Quadrotors — [VIDEO]
- The Tragedy of the Commons — [VIDEO]
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- Does Apple lack “generosity”? — [LINKS]
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- Water Crystals — [DOCUMENT]
- Apple’s e-book software will allow publishers to make textbooks more interactive. — [LINKS + VIDEO]
- Alain Soral is France’s most dangerous intellectual… (dangerous for the French plutocrats, that is). — [VIDEO]
- Computers thru time — [CHART]
- NASA has finally understood the theorical basis of LENR (low-energy nuclear reactions). — [VIDEO]
Tag Archives: Bob Erikson
Damped polls outperform prediction markets.
Forecasting Principles: Damping polls Evidence from the literature shows that polls, in particular early in the campaign, are not reliable in predicting election outcomes but tend to overestimate the extent to which a candidate leads. To deal with these uncertainties, … Continue reading →
POLLS VERSUS PREDICTION MARKETS: Justin Wolfers retorts to Bob Erikson.
Justin Wolfers (in January 2008): 1. Bob and Chris has four elections in their data, so it is hard to draw too much from it. That said, I draw two conclusions. First, markets beat an unconditional use of polls as … Continue reading →
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice)
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Tagged accuracy, Bob Erikson, Christopher Wlezien, event deivative markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Finance, Iowa Electronic Markets, Justin Wolfers, Palm Desert, Politics, polls, prediction markets, relative accuracy, Robert S. Erikson, sports betting markets, Take Fred Thompson, the Journal of Economic Perspectives
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7 Comments
Based on market data from a tiny prediction exchange (IEM, which is much smaller than InTrade-TradeSports or BetFair), a couple of researchers claim that prediction markets do not have superior predictive power. — And, adding salt to injury, they call our prediction market luminaries (Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers, etc.)… “naive”.
Via Adam Siegel… …of Inkling Markets fame…. – Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election Predictors? – (draft: PDF file) – by Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien – 2008-05-02 Abstract Election markets have been praised for their … Continue reading →
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice)
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Tagged accuracy, Adam, Adam Siegel, Bob Erikson, Christopher Wlezien, event deivative markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Iowa, Iowa Electronic Markets, Justin Wolfers, Politics, polls, poor forecasting tool, prediction markets, relative accuracy, Robert S. Erikson, Robin Hanson, Trader
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3 Comments
The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets: Economic and Financial Implications
Bruke Hansen: [...] Steven Levitt, of Freakonomics fame, got the party started with a keynote address that gave his general opinion of the importance of gambling and prediction markets – namely, that in the grand scheme of things, they really … Continue reading →
The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets Workshop starts today.
In a few hours, the workshop The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets: Economic and Financial Implications starts at Palm Desert, California. The quality of presenters is excellent and the workshop has succeeded in attracting high level contributions. The program … Continue reading →
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Meta), Betting, Economics, Gambling
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Tagged Andrew Leigh, Athens University of Economics and Business, Australian National University, Bob Erikson, California, Chris Wlezien, Columbia, Columbia University, Eric Zitzewitz, Feng Zhou, George Mason University, Hebrew University, Iowa, Jakob Bergfjord, Joyce E. Berg, Justin Wolfers, National Football League, New York University, Norwegian School of Economics, Palm Desert, Pennsylvania, Philip O'Connor, prediction markets, Raphael Markellos, Ricard Gil, Robin Hanson, Ryan Oprea, Santa Cruz, Stanford University, Stefan Luckner, Steve Levitt, Temple University, Tom Gruca, University of California at Santa Cruz, University of Chicago, University of Iowa, University of Karlsruhe, University of Pennsylvania, University of Waikato, University of Westminster, Vasiliki A. Makropoulou, World Cup, Yahoo!
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1 Comment
The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets: Economic and Financial Implications
The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets: Economic and Financial Implications – University of California at Riverside, Palm Desert, California, U.S.A. – 2007-05-10~22 Gambling: Design and Implementation 1 – “An Examination of the Determinants of Biased Behaviour in a Market … Continue reading →
Posted in Events & Meetings
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Tagged Albert N. Link, Alexander Koch, Alistair Bruce, Andrew Economopoulos, Andrew Grant, Andrew Weinbach, Andy Weinbach, Athens University of Economics and Business, Avichai Snir, Bar Ilan University, Bob Erikson, Boston College, Bruno Deschamps, California, Chad D. Cotti, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Coastal Carolina University, College of the Holy Cross, Columbia, Columbia University, Cross Border, Dartmouth College, David Grant, David Johnstone, David Paton, David Peel, Don Imus, Donald Siegel, Douglas Walker, Drew B. Winters, Embedded Prediction, Eric Zitzewitz, Feng Zhou, George Mason University, Georgia, Georgia College, Greensboro, Greg Durham, Hebrew University, Herbert Walther, Ian McHale, Internet betting, Iowa, Iraq, Jeremy Ko, John Lynham, John Pierson, John T. Scott, Johnnie Johnson, Justin Wolfers, Kelly Probability Scoring, Lancaster University, Leighton Vaughan-Williams, Loreto Llorente, Macau, Marshall Gramm, Mike Wenz, Ming-Chien Sung, Montana, National Football League, New York, New York University, North Carolina, Norwegian School of Economics, Nottingham Trent University, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State University, Ole Jakob Bergfjord, Orly Sade, Palm Desert, Pennsylvania, Philip O'Connor, prediction markets, Professor, Ramon DeGennaro, Raphael Markellos, Raymond So, Rhodes College, Ricard Gil, Ricardo Siu, Richard McGowan, Riverside, Robin Hanson, Rodney J. Paul, Ron Mau, Royal Holloway College, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Salford University, Santa Barbara, Santa Cruz, Schnytzer, Shannon Neibergs, South Carolina, Southampton, Southampton University, St. Bonaventure University, Stanford University, Stefan Luckner, Stefan Winter, Steve Levitt, Sydney Professor David, Tennessee, tennis, Texas, Texas Tech University, Tom Gruca, United Kingdom, United States, Universidad Pública de Navarra, University of Bath, University of Birmingham, University of California, University of Chicago, University of Economics, University of Iowa, University of Karlsruhe, University of Kent, University of London, University of Macau, University of North Carolina at Greensboro, University of Nottingham, University of Nottingham Jiejun Yu, University of Pennsylvania, University of South Carolina, University of Sydney, University of Tennessee, University of Waikato, University of Waikato TBA, University of Westminster, Ursinus College, Victor Matheson, Washington, Washington State University, Western Carolina University, William H. Dare, William Ziemba, Winona State University, World Cup, Yahoo!
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