Tag Archives: Bloomberg
PREDICTION MARKETS HAVE ARRIVED: Bloomberg columnist shames India’s government FOR NOT USING prediction markets to forecast demand.
WOW. This is big.
Andy Mukherjee:
[...] Finally, demand estimation is too important to be left entirely to experts.
Companies such as Google Inc. are harnessing the power of prediction markets — which gather information from a large number of participants — to generate useful forecasts.
There’s no reason why governments can’t do the same.
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Great idea.
Let’s shame the 95% [...]
Tennis is not systematically nor institutionally corrupt. There is no evidence of a link to the Mafia.
Only 45 suspicious tennis matches out of the hundreds of thousands of matches played over the last five years.
That’s peanuts.
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Via Steve Roman
Bloomberg
New York Times
The Times (of London)
The Guardian
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Previously: The Mark Davies speech on sports, corruption, sports betting, and BetFair
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France’s Nicolas Sarkozy — One year later, the French economy is still in the mud.
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No good.
Nicolas Sarkozy has become the most unpopular French president ever —primarily due to his personal behavior.
France’s public finances deteriorated in 2007, hovering close to the Maastricht 3% mark.
Public spending (54% of gross domestic product) is the highest in the European Union.
Nicolas Sarkozy has launched some reforms, which were needed, but which will not suffice.
He [...]
InTrade ditch market-leader Bloomberg for low-cost, second-tier data provider eSignal.
InTrade:
IMPORTANT: Financial Contracts Rule Change
Wednesday, Apr 16, 2008
As of Monday, April 21st we will no longer be using Bloomberg as the source of expiry information for our daily financial contracts. We will instead be using data provided by Interactive Data Corporation, using the eSignal application. The contract rules published on the site will be updated [...]
How have Jason Ruspini’s tax futures markets at InTrade-TradeSports fared, so far?
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The most liquid of the Jason Ruspini-created contracts:
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I would like to talk a bit about the Internet marketing of these prediction markets, in the rest of this present post.
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As you all know, Jason Ruspini published a blog post on his (semi-abandoned) blog (spot the comments), was interviewed by Bloomberg, and then went to BNN [...]
Nassim Nicholas Taleb likens modern-day financial markets to medicine in the 1800s, when going to a hospital in London or Paris multiplied your risk of death by four times, he says. Similarly, quants increase risk by deploying flawed financial tools designed to reduce it, he argues.
Via Stan Jonas, Nassim Nicholas Taleb cited in a Bloomberg article (Taleb Outsells Greenspan as Black Swan Gives Worst Turbulence):
Stress tests are inherently risky because they ignore rare but potentially devastating events. [...] .. ["stress test" = Wall Street lingo for examining how a market rout will play out]
Past shortfall doesn’t predict future shortfall. [...]
Bayesian [...]
InTrade-TradeSports and BetFair-TradeFair should take a close look at Cantor Fitzgerald’s strategy to gain a share of the $100 billion U.S. gambling industry.
Very interesting Bloomberg article.
[I'm resending this post in the loop and in the feed, because the link was broken; it is now corrected. Sorry for that.]
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