Tag Archives: Bertie Ahern

The Prime Minister of Ireland has just said he will resign, but neither InTrade nor BetFair would give the first fig.

InTrade do not have any open “Bertie Ahern” prediction markets. InTrade do not have any closed “Bertie Ahern” either. BetFair do have a series of “Bye Bye Bertie” prediction markets —still open at the time of writing. So I deduce … Continue reading

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Can InTrade predict the future of foreign governments?

Probably, yes. InTrade is a good information aggregation mechanism, in most cases —there are always exceptions, of course. Here is the list of the “National Leaders” prediction markets at InTrade (under “Current Events”): National Leaders – Robert Mugabe (Zimbabwe) – … Continue reading

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Plenty of new socially valuable prediction markets at InTrade.

InTrade seems to take its role as market leader for US political prediction markets very seriously. Since its official splitting with TradeSports, InTrade has opened many interesting prediction markets on legal, political and geo-political issues. — National Leader Departure Markets: … Continue reading

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 7 Comments

Bertie Ahern was re-elected Ireland’s premier, extending his 10-years in power and clearing the way for a broadly based coalition government.

Wall Street Journal – $$$ It’s a three-party government. Bloomberg: The Fianna Fail leader, 55, secured enough parliamentary support to be voted in as taoiseach, as the prime minister is known in Irish, after reaching deals with the Green Party, … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment