Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Beijing

OLYMPICS BETTING: BetFair is fun, while InTrade is boring like hell —and TradeSports, inexistent.

BetFair’s prediction markets, on which country will get the most medals —it’s China, but the U.S. is not far behind.
InTrade’s prediction markets, on the boring boycott thing.
TradeSports is AWOL.
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A proposal: Will the Olympics get derailed by air pollution?

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If the British legal betting companies offer bets on the sport, it is because there is demand for bets on the sport —and if that demand were not offered in a regulated environment, it would be filled in an unregulated one (like what we see with TradeSports-InTrade and MatchBook in the US market).

Mark Davies of BetFair (PDF file):
International Leaders in Sport conference, Auckland, New Zealand. April 3-4th 2008.
Keynote speech, April 4th. Mark Davies, Betfair.
“New Understandings in Sports Betting”
Minister, ladies and gentlemen… Thank you very much for your kind invitation to speak to you today. I have once before been asked by sport to address it, as a [...]

“I’m very concerned with the international situation and what’s happening in Tibet.”

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International Olympic Committee head Jacques Rogge
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Olympics @ Wikipedia
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Contract Rules
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This contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if there is an official boycott of the 2008 Olympic games in Beijing announced before the commencement of the games.
The contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if there is NOT an official boycott of the 2008 [...]

The Year Of The Rat should bring $$$ to the prediction market industry and the event derivative traders.

Happy Chinese New Year to our reader Paul Denlinger in Beijing, China…

Positive Traits: Meticulous, intelligent, shrewd, compassionate, charismatic, charming, ambitious, practical, industrious, honest, eloquent, versatile, familial, creative, hard-working, neat, organized, lovers of music, loving.
Negative Traits: Controlling, obstinate, resentful, lacks-a-sense-of-humor, manipulative, cruel, vengeful, power-driven, critical, possessive, stingy, bossy, fickle, defensive.

Where do carbon credits trade in Europe?

- Wikipedia – Emissions trading:
The European Union Emission Trading Scheme is the largest multi-national, greenhouse gas emissions trading scheme in the world. It commenced operation in January 2005 and all 25-member states of the European Union participate in the scheme.
- Wikipedia – Carbon emissions trading:
The world’s only mandatory carbon trading program is the European Union [...]

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