Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

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Nigel Eccles’ flawed “vision” about HubDub shows that he hasn’t any.

[IMPORTANT NOTE: This present post is critical of one point expressed by Nigel Eccles, but, overall, I like this Scottish guy, and I enjoy HubDub's prediction markets a lot.]
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Nigel Eccles:
Quoting HubDub forecasts in news stories about future events will be as common as quoting stock prices in financial stories is today or (in the UK) [...]

James Surowiecki, author of The Wisdom of Crowds, sums up his book.

Video #1

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Video #2

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James Surowiecki, author of The Wisdom of Crowds, talks to the Midas Oracle readers.

James Surowiecki – Short video
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Commenting on Midas Oracle

As you know, some people commenting here told me they went into trouble, even when they were logged in. I found out why. The anti-spam plugin “WP Spam Free” does not exempt registered blog users from its anti-spam checking. It only exempts the administrator (me). That’s absurd. (See the WP forum.) The registered users of [...]

Inkling Markets’ Advisory Board… which does not want to tell its name

Via Daniel Horowitz (Business and Technology Consultant)
Inkling Markets’ Advisory Board (curiously named “Friends Of Inkling”):

Bo Cowgill, Google Inc. — Product developer, expert on decision markets for Google; creator of Google’s prediction market and co-author of Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence From Google.
George Gendron, Clark University — Founder and director of the Innovation [...]

CALL TO ACTION: Let’s fight so that the CFTC allows the FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges to deal with “event markets”.

The second feedback I have received about my speculative post goes like this: …If some believe that the CFTC might rule that “event markets” should be treated only by not-for-profit, IEM-like, prediction exchanges… …while some others think that’s not the case… …even though a powerful American think tank is advocating that only not-for-profit prediction exchanges [...]

The Wikipedia entry on prediction markets looks like a messy Marrakesh bazaar. — Shame on all members of the field of prediction markets –including the author of this present, finger-wagging post.

The Wikipedia entry on prediction markets does not seem to be well maintained.
Here are the warnings that welcome visitors. The first of the 2 warnings has been up since November 2007 —that’s 7 months ago!!!!!!
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And the definition opens on the big myth, create by IEM, and perpetuated by some scholars:
Prediction markets are speculative markets created [...]

Justin Wolfers should have his own Wikipedia entry.

Any Wikipedian out there willing to start off his page?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justin_Wolfers
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Robin Hanson, Tyler Cowen, Steve Levitt, and even Don Luskin and Robert Scoble, have their own Wikipedia entry. Why not Wolfers???… I realized that when I updated my “acknowledgments” page:
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Acknowledgments
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- Friedrich August Von Hayek (an economist who introduced, among other things, the concept of the market [...]

If the British legal betting companies offer bets on the sport, it is because there is demand for bets on the sport —and if that demand were not offered in a regulated environment, it would be filled in an unregulated one (like what we see with TradeSports-InTrade and MatchBook in the US market).

Mark Davies of BetFair (PDF file):
International Leaders in Sport conference, Auckland, New Zealand. April 3-4th 2008.
Keynote speech, April 4th. Mark Davies, Betfair.
“New Understandings in Sports Betting”
Minister, ladies and gentlemen… Thank you very much for your kind invitation to speak to you today. I have once before been asked by sport to address it, as a [...]

Are U.S. banks capable of stopping transactions tied to event derivative traders made for speculating at InTrade-TradeSports and MatchBook?

New York Times:

Congress to Take Testimony on Internet Gambling Ban
By Matt Richtel

The Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006 made it illegal for banks and other financial institutions to process online wagers. The goal was to find an indirect way to regulate offshore casinos [... and sportsbooks... and real-money prediction exchanges...], which are outside the [...]

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