Tag Archives: Arnold Kling

NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: Prediction markets are for fools. They might work for a binary election, but not in the Fourth Quadrant.

Posted on September 16, 2008 by Chris F. Masse
Posted in Analysis (Meta), Finance, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged , , , , , | 1 Comment

NOBEL LAUREATE VERNON SMITH LEAVES ROBIN HANSON’S GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY TO GO WORKING FOR TOM W. BELL’S CHAPMAN UNIVERSITY.

Posted on July 23, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Felix Salmon: GMU’s economics department is, famously, full of bloggers. Its chairman Donald Boudreaux blogs at Cafe Hayek with colleague Russ Roberts; Robin Hanson founded Overcoming Bias; Bryan Caplan and Arnold Kling blog at EconLog; Peter Boettke blogs at The … Continue reading →

Posted in Economics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

Like I’ve been saying about global warming contracts

Posted on July 9, 2007 by Caveat Bettor

There’s a lotta interest out there! I started posting about this back in January. UPDATE: With Chris’s comment, from pictured from right-to-left are: Al Gore, Scott Armstrong, Arnold Kling, and Bryan Caplan.

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Betting | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Wisdom of outliers helps crowds, or Average > Median

Posted on June 28, 2007 by Caveat Bettor

Arnold Kling, on Edger Capen (of the Winner’s Curse): His main theme is that people under-estimate uncertainty. If someone says, “the chance of X falling between A and B is 90 percent,” the true probability is likely to be 30 … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds | Tagged | Leave a comment