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Tag Archives: arbitrage opportunities
As Justin Wolfers noted, maybe there are today bigger practical obstacles to prediction market arbitrage.
- Legal restrictions for US traders on foreign prediction exchanges (BetFair, etc.); – Transaction fees (you would need to operate on 2 exchanges); – Currency risks and cost for hedging on that. Eric Crampton (a Canadian exiled in New Zealand) … Continue reading →
Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets
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Tagged arbitrage opportunities, arbitrages, Barack Obama, BetFair, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, manipulation attempts, manipulations, market arbitrages, market manipulations, prediction markets
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Is InTrade being manipulated? Why does InTrade give a discounted probability for Barack Obama as US president?
A quick link panorama. – #1. Is InTrade being manipulated? – Nate Silver shows that there are abrupt downward pressures on the Barack Obama event derivative, while we also see some abrupt upward pressures on the Hillary Clinton event derivative. … Continue reading →
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Market Trading
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Tagged arbitrage opportunities, arbitrages, Barack Obama, BetFair, betting markets, Emile Servan-Schreiber, Eric Zitzewitz, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Freakonomics, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, Justin Wolfers, Lance Fortnow, manipulation attempts, manipulations, market arbitrages, market manipulations, Nate Silver, polls, polls versus prediction markets, Portfolio, prediction markets, state correlations, Zubin Jelveh
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