Tag Archives: arbitrage opportunities

As Justin Wolfers noted, maybe there are today bigger practical obstacles to prediction market arbitrage.

- Legal restrictions for US traders on foreign prediction exchanges (BetFair, etc.); – Transaction fees (you would need to operate on 2 exchanges); – Currency risks and cost for hedging on that. Eric Crampton (a Canadian exiled in New Zealand) … Continue reading

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Is InTrade being manipulated? Why does InTrade give a discounted probability for Barack Obama as US president?

A quick link panorama. – #1. Is InTrade being manipulated? – Nate Silver shows that there are abrupt downward pressures on the Barack Obama event derivative, while we also see some abrupt upward pressures on the Hillary Clinton event derivative. … Continue reading

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