Tag Archives: analysis

CIA now know InTrade’s prediction markets were not useful in assessing Fukushima. — [SCREENSHOT]

Posted on April 14, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

InTrade was not able to predict anything regarding the Fukushima nuclear energy plant. — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM] –> See Jason Ruspini’s comment, by the way.

Posted in Midas Oracle Statistics | Tagged analysis, betting markets, Central Intelligence Agency, CIA, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, event derivative markets, intelligence, Intelligence Community, InTrade, Midas Oracle, prediction markets, US government, US Intelligence Community | Leave a comment

The W.P. Carey School researchers proved that prediction markets could work as a model-selection tool… — [LINK]

Posted on March 23, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

… “and they also believe that such markets could become all the more powerful by replicating market trends, such as mirrored investing and program trading.“

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged analysis, bets, Betting, betting markets, Economics, event derivative markets, event derivatives, prediction markets, Research | Leave a comment

Are prediction markets useful? – [ANALYSIS]

Posted on February 24, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Paul Hewitt: Jason: I can see how you might think that of Chris, but I think it is more true that as Chris acquired more knowledge about prediction markets, he became more skeptical. I have to admit that the same … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged analysis, Betting, betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, event derivative, event derivative markets, forecasting, forecasts, Paul Hewitt, predicting, prediction markets, Predictions, wisdom of crowds | 3 Comments

Economists who had a better record at calling extreme events had a worse record in general.

Posted on January 11, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

“The analyst with the largest number as well as the highest proportion of accurate and extreme forecasts had, by far, the worst forecasting record.“

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Economics, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged analysis, economic forecasting, economic forecasts, economic predicting, economic predictions, Economics, economy, forecasting, forecasts, post-mortem, post-mortem predictions, predicting, Prediction Post-Mortem, Predictions | Leave a comment

Ray Kurzweil’s analysis of his own predictions is 146 pages long and uses the word “wrong” 10 times and the word “error” 2 times.

Posted on December 24, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Ray Kurzweil’s PDF. Wikipedia on Ray Kurzweil’s predictions. Ray Kurzweil’s prediction track record is investigated by IEEE Spectrum.

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Forecasting (Science & Practice), Inventions & Innovations, Prediction Post-Mortem, Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged analysis, errors, forecasting, forecasts, predicting, Predictions, Ray Kurzweil, right, wrong | Leave a comment

Prediction Markets as a Medical Forecasting Tool: Demand for Hospital Services

Posted on August 20, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Prediction Markets as a Medical Forecasting Tool: Demand for Hospital Services Background This paper presents the outcome of a study conducted at the Royal Devon and Exeter Hospital in which a prediction market was established in order to forecast demand … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets | Tagged accuracy, analysis, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, hospital, Journal of Prediction Markets, prediction accuracy, Prediction Market Journal, prediction markets, Predictions | Leave a comment

Three Voices on Prediction Markets: The Analyst, the Believer, and the Skeptic

Posted on August 20, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Three Voices on Prediction Markets: The Analyst, the Believer, and the Skeptic Followed from: – Crowdsourcing and Prediction Markets: Right-Timing Revisited Via the Spigit guy