Tag Archives: American Idol

Prof Panos hates it when I point to a prediction market “failure”.

Posted on May 29, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged accuracy, American Idol, American Idol 2009, BetFair, betting markets, Collective Forecasting, event derivative markets, prediction markets | 6 Comments

Prediction markets failed miserably at forecasting accurately the American Idol winner.

Posted on May 22, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Aggregating information was not enough to predict the future —this time. Our prediction exchanges won’t issue any statement about it: They will keep it under the rug. When their prediction markets succeed, they brag about it in the media. But … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged accuracy, American Idol, Collective Intelligence, efficiency, InTrade, prediction markets, velocity, wisdom of crowds | Leave a comment

How come prediction exchanges are ranking so low for American Idol?

Posted on May 21, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Midas Oracle has received many visitors from Google this week, thanks to the great work of Ryan from HubDub. I tried to understand why. Turn out when you type “american idol prediction market” (you can add the “s” at the … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Entrepreneurship, Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Tagged American Idol, BetFair, Google Internet Search, Google Search, Google Web Search, Hollywood Stock Exchange, HSX, HubDub, InTrade, prediction exchanges, prediction market industry, prediction market startups, prediction markets, Search Engines | Leave a comment

American Idol: The final two

Posted on May 18, 2009 by Ryan

As we face the end of season eight, I find myself looking back. I knew from the first semi-final round that Kris Allen would be my favorite contestant and week after week he has performed brilliantly. Conventional wisdom suggests that … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged American Idol, HubDub, prediction markets | Leave a comment

Hubdub Hot Predictions This Week

Posted on May 4, 2009 by Ryan

Hubdubâ€™s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week – and we have forecasts on how theyâ€™re likely … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged adam and danny, American Idol, betting markets, boston celtics, Collective Forecasting, contestants, divorce, epidemic, event derivative markets, female justice, final two, H1N1, HubDub, influenza, Influenza A (H1N1), Italy, Justice Souter, Mexican Flu, Mexico, National Basketball Association, NBA, nba playoffs, new wife, orlando magic, pandemic, playoffs, prediction markets, Silvio Berlusconi, Sonia Sotomayor, souter, Supreme Court, supreme court justices, supreme court nominees, swine flu, WHO, World Health Organization, young woman | Leave a comment

USFE aims at InTrade. – Financial Times Edition

Posted on March 23, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

The Financial Times on U.S. Futures Exchange (USFE): [...] The revamped USFE was formed from the remnants of Deutsche BÃ¶rse-controlled Eurex US, which lost a bruising battle with the CBOT in 2005 after challenging the Board of Trade’s largest product … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry) | Tagged American Idol, CBOT, chief executive, Kevin Davis, Man Financial, online sites, product group, retail investors, the Financial Times, United States, USFE, World Health Organization | Leave a comment