Tag Archives: Al Qaeda

InTrade’s prediction markets on secretive events are just an Irish scam. — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on May 7, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Paul Hewitt: How do we know the Intrade price was not accurate? Well, the raid wasn’t just executed on a whim. It had been planned for quite some time. Therefore, the true likelihood must have been much higher than the … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged Al Qaeda, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasts, InTrade, Justin Wolfers, post-mortem, post-mortems, prediction markets, Prediction Post-Mortem, prediction post-mortems, Predictions, scam, terrorism, terrorists | Leave a comment

InTrade on the elimination of Osama Bin Laden — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on May 7, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Mike Giberson: How do we know, now, that Intrade’s market price was not an accurate estimate of the probability bin Laden was killed or captured by September 2011? Is an prior estimate of 50 percent likelihood that a tossed coin … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged Al Qaeda, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasts, InTrade, James Surowiecki, Justin Wolfers, Osama bin Laden, post-mortem, post-mortems, prediction markets, Prediction Post-Mortem, prediction post-mortems, Predictions, Robin Hanson, terrorism, terrorists | 1 Comment

InTrade was not able to predict the elimination of Osama Bin Laden. — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM]

Posted on May 4, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

I already blogged about the big fail of the prediction markets. Here’s more from the NYT, Eddy Elfenbein, and Barry Ritholtz.

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged Al Qaeda, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasts, InTrade, Osama bin Laden, post-mortem, post-mortems, prediction markets, Prediction Post-Mortem, prediction post-mortems, Predictions, terrorism, terrorists | 4 Comments

Did Bin Laden speculate on the US airline stock derivatives (shorting them) between September 6, 2001 (date when he learned the timing of the attacks), and September 11, 2001 (date of the 4 attacks)?

Posted on May 23, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Via Mat Fogarty of Xpree Unusual Option Market Activity and the Terrorist Attacks of September 11, 2001 – by Allen M. Poteshman – 2006 Options traders, corporate managers, security analysts, exchange officials, regulators, prosecutors, policy makers, andâ€”at timesâ€”the public … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Finance | Tagged 9/11 Commission, Airline, airline index, Al Qaeda, Allen M. Poteshman, Bin Laden, calls, derivatives, Did Bin Laden, FBI, Federal Bureau of Investigation, insider trading, insiders, options, Policy Analysis Market, put options, puts, S&P 500, SEC, Securities and Exchange Commission, Standard and Poor's airline, stocks, terrorism, terrorists, UAL, United States, US airlines, World Trade Center | 3 Comments

John McCain’s grumpy old pal writes to Bo Cowgill’s boss.

Posted on May 20, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Joe Lieberman: May 19, 2008 Dr. Eric Schmidt Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer Google, Inc. 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway Mountain View, CA 94043 Dear Dr. Schmidt: YouTube is being used to share videos produced by al-Qaeda and other … Continue reading →

Posted in Ethics, Politics, The Internet | Tagged Afghanistan, Al Qaeda, Ansar al-Islam, Board and Chief Executive Officer, California, chairman, Chairman of the Board, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer, Department of State, Eric Schmidt, Foreign Terrorist, Google, Homegrown Terrorist, Internet campaign, Iraq, Iraq war, Islamist terrorist, islamists, Joe Lieberman, John McCain, Joseph I. Lieberman, law enforcement, media campaign, Mountain View, multi-tiered online media operation, online content, Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, terrorists, United States, YouTube | Leave a comment

Based on the analysis of some 600,000 official Iraqi documents seized by US forces after the invasion and thousands of hours of interrogations of former officials in Saddam’s government now in US custody, there is no evidence Saddam Hussein had ties to Al Qaeda.

Posted on March 14, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

ABC News PDF file

Posted in Politics | Tagged ABC, Al Qaeda, Iraq, Saddam, Saddam Hussein, Saddam's government, United States | Leave a comment

If Musharraf goes, should we celebrate?

Posted on November 8, 2007 by Eric Zitzewitz

Benazir Bhutto made a compelling case in the Sunday New York Times that she would be a better partner for the West than Musharraf. As she noted, $10 billion in U.S. aid since 2001 has not resulted in the elimination … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Meta), Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged Al Qaeda, Benazir Bhutto, InTrade, New York Times, Osama Ben Laden, Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf, prediction markets, Sunday New York Times, United States, USD | 1 Comment

August 6, 2001: Bin Laden Determined to Strike in US.

Posted on August 23, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Note: This blog post is filed in the “forecasting” and “accuracy” categories. — New York Times – Anonymous Editorial: [...] The Bush team was so busy in 2001 trying to upend Americaâ€™s global relationships according to a neo-conservative agenda that … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Forecasting (Science & Practice), History, Politics | Tagged Abu Zubaydah, Afghanistan, Ahmed Ressam, Al Qaeda, America, Bin Laden, California, Canada, Central Intelligence Agency, Condoleezza Rice, Dar es Salaam, East Africa, Egyptian Islamic Jihad, Federal Bureau of Investigation, George W. Bush, Iraq, Kenya, Lieutenant, Los Angeles, Los Angeles International Airport, media reports, Nairobi, national security adviser, New York, New York Times, Omar Abdel Rahman, operative, President, Ramzi Yousef, Tanzania, Tenet, UAE, United States, Washington, World Trade Center | Leave a comment

The US president argued today that an Al Qaeda-affiliated group in Iraq is linked tightly to the central Al Qaeda leadership.

Posted on July 24, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Larry Downing / Reuters — George W. Bush is an imbÃ©cile. Who created ex nihilo this Iraq mess? — George W. Bush to be impeached by House of Representatives before end of his term in office — Static chart: — … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged Al Qaeda, George W. Bush, House of Representatives, Iraq, Iraqi government, Larry Downing, Reuters, United States, US President | Leave a comment

Fox News is bad, therefore Rupert Murdoch is bad, therefore Rupert Murdoch buying the Wall Street Journal is bad.

Posted on June 29, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Quite a simplistic reasoning, right? Paul Krugman is not a sophisticated thinker. That said, Paul Krugman has one good point: In October 2003, the nonpartisan Program on International Policy Attitudes published a study titled â€œMisperceptions, the media and the Iraq … Continue reading →

Posted in Business, Ethics, Politics | Tagged Al Qaeda, Dick Cheney, Iraq, Paul Krugman, Paul Wolfowitz, Republican Party, Rupert Murdoch, Saddam Hussein, The Wall Street Journal, United States, Wall Street Journal | Leave a comment

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