Category Archives: Midas Oracle Project

Changing the world thru organic marketing and more objective predictions?

I have a question for you, guys. – Do you think we could all start a movement and change the world? Midas Oracle = Internet Strategy + Collective Forecasting Our approach: Organic marketing Objective forecasting Our means: Mastering both the … Continue reading

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Prediction Markets on Midas Oracle

As you have seen, Ryan of HubDub have published about a bunch of play-money prediction markets that are hot this week. I hope that Ryan will come back each week to update us. This possibility to inform the Midas Oracle … Continue reading

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Should there be a Prediction Market Institute?

David Pennock: Oops, a clarification: I meant one could ask “Should there be a Prediction Institute?”. I agree a Prediction Institute does not imply market-based, and that prediction and forecasting are roughly the same. I was saying that in a … Continue reading

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Track records + Prediction markets — Will they mix up well?

Yet another reason why we should *not* call it the “Prediction Market Institute”… Nicholas Kristof: So what about a system to evaluate us prognosticators? Professor Tetlock suggests that various foundations might try to create a “trans-ideological Consumer Reports for punditry,” … Continue reading

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The 6 little things David Pennock didn’t tell you about the Prediction Market Institute

- #1. – It is not such a great idea to call it a “prediction market institute”, for the reasons that it excludes the non-market mechanisms and the other collective intelligence mechanisms. (See Daniel’s comment on the Pennock blog, here.) … Continue reading

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The HHS–Sebelius prediction market might be (yet) another case-in-point for documenting velocity.

It is only today (February 19) that the New York Times emerges out of hibernation and headlines: – Kansas Governor Seen as Top Choice in Health Post. — Gov. Kathleen Sebelius is emerging as President Obama’s top choice for secretary … Continue reading

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Accuracy —not

This year, the prediction markets did nail the Super Bowl 2009. – However, last year, they did not. – What I am trying to convey is that: An argumentation on accuracy will sometimes win and sometimes lose. (For the Super … Continue reading

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The Open Institute Of Prediction Markets

This post is for hosting comments about my mass e-mail on the Open Institute Of Prediction Markets.

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The Open Institute Of Prediction Markets

To get informed about our attempt at creating, in 2009, “The Open Institute Of Prediction Markets“, you should: - be a member of the LinkedIn group on Prediction Markets (we are 192 197, whereas John M’s group is only 77) —I … Continue reading

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The Open Institute Of Prediction Markets

I am (finally) finished writing up the mission statement of The Open Institute Of Prediction Markets. I have asked Mike Giberson, Mike Linksvayer, and (of course) David Pennock, to give me feedback, so I can see whether I am on … Continue reading

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