Category Archives: Exchange Liquidity

SMARKETS: £50 million traded got them the attention of Wired UK magazine. — [SNAPSHOT + LINK]

Posted on November 22, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

£50 million traded. Wired UK (Hunter Morris and Jason Trost).

Posted in Business, Entrepreneurship, Exchange Genesis, Exchange Liquidity, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Are InTrade lying about the number of ‘predictions’ they process? — [GUEST AUTHOR]

Posted on September 13, 2011 by Guest Author

Intrade now post the following claim on their home page: Platform Metrics (More Soon) Platform operational: Since 2001 Total Predictions: 619,141,899 Average Daily Predictions: 169,589 This is just a preposterous misrepresentation of the volume of activity on the site. The … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchange & Market Management, Exchange Liquidity, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The betting revolution in horse racing — [VIDEO]

Posted on July 30, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

CNN.

Posted in Betting, Exchange Liquidity, Exchanges & Markets, Inventions & Innovations, Mechanism Designs | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Prediction markets are unable to accurately predict long-term outcomes, and they have poor records for accuracy and reliability, all of which are crucial for enterprise adoption.

Posted on January 12, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Paul Hewitt: – How far in advance can prediction markets make accurate predictions? – How will we know the point in time when a prediction is ‘accurate’? – Why are there wildly different predictions of the same outcome in different … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Analysis (Meta), Exchange & Market Designs, Exchange Liquidity, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

What’s different about Predictalot?

Posted on June 25, 2010 by David Pennock

A predictalot user asked: What’s the difference between predict a lot y Bolsa de predicciones? they have the same things or at least very similar. ?Are you the same? They have predictions, groups, events etc. the only difference is the … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Betting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Exchange & Market Designs, Exchange Genesis, Exchange Liquidity, Exchanges & Markets, Inventions & Innovations, Market Makers (Automated), Market Prices & Probabilities, Research | Tagged , , , , , | 1 Comment

BetFair’s Mark Davies (the Prince of betting exchange PR) has just gotten a second omelet in the face.

Posted on March 26, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

First, the Financial Times —and, now, Freakonomics. The journalistic rule should be that, if you cite one prediction exchange, you should cite the one that is the most liquid on the market you are writing about. For UK politics, it … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchange & Market Management, Exchange Liquidity, Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Does InTrade participate on its 2012 Republication Nomination prediction markets?

Posted on March 23, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

A mysterious InTrade forum user (could be a trader or could be John Delaney) has posted this: ***** Newbie Joined: 24/01/2010 15:58:35 Messages: 1 Original thread at midasoracle.org: So the actor has to a) not care about the transaction fee … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchange & Market Management, Exchange Liquidity, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Makers (Automated), Market Makers (Human), Market Prices & Probabilities, Market Trading, Market Transaction Costs | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments

Does InTrade participate on its own prediction markets?

Posted on March 19, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

One (anonymous) InTrade trader: I am utterly convinced Intrade participates in its own markets. Every few hours some kind of API hits the bids on the GOP 2012 nomination contract when the bids sum to more 100. It will even … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchange & Market Management, Exchange Liquidity, Exchanges & Markets, Market Makers (Automated), Market Makers (Human), Market Trading | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments

BRITISH CRETINERY: The Financial Times features the InTrade probabilities —not the BetFair ones.

Posted on March 17, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

This is really stupid. The decerebrated journalos at the FT chose to feature the illiquid, Ireland-based, un-regulated InTrade prediction markets instead of the very liquid, UK-based, regulated BetFair prediction markets on the next British congress. Makes no sense at all. … Continue reading →

Posted in Collective Forecasting, Exchange Liquidity, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The Robin Hanson manipulation papers make unrealistic assumptions, but it’s not like prediction markets are a bad idea…!!…

Posted on November 30, 2009 by Guest Author

In terms of unrealistic assumptions in Robin Hanson’s series of papers on manipulation, the major ones have been out there since at least 2004. Despite some limited evidence, the insistence on traders needing to know the direction of manipulation isn’t … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchange & Market Designs, Exchange Liquidity, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments