Category Archives: Analysis (Meta)
Dawn Tevekelian Keller wants to convince your boss to adopt enterprise prediction markets.
Dawn Tevekelian Keller (formerly at Best Buy) does not write for Robin Hanson et al.:
This blog is not geared toward the existing Prediction Market intelligentsia. While I would be honored to have fellow enthusiasts read and critique this blog, I’m not writing this for them, specifically.
I’m writing for a general business audience, decision makers in [...]
In most cases, the team (including the best predictors) outshines the best predictor working alone.
I had a question about VentureBeat’s statement, and Leslie Fine has answered it.
VentureBeat:
As everyone has known since the modern corporation was invented, employees such as executive assistants or production line managers often have better information and more accurate insight than their management.
CrowdCast’s Leslie Fine:
The claim here is not that the administrator knows more than the [...]
Wimbledon Betting Markets
Whilst Vaughan Williams’ research on the horse race betting market is highly supportive of the notion that transaction costs are a barrier to efficiency, recent research by David Forrest and Ian McHale, lecturers at the University of Salford, has highlighted the fact that despite the presence of low transaction costs in the (traditional fixed odds) [...]
Accurate prediction markets
Stupidity, as defined by Prof Panos…
Panos Ipeirotis:
[...] It is largely stupid to call “successful” a continuous market that gets the average right but has a very high spread over the outcomes. Similarly, it is stupid to call a success a discrete market that is “correct” (i.e., the frontrunner being the actual outcome) when the contract [...]
Is General Electric Imagination Market a joke?
Emile Servan-Schreiber bends David Perry’s ear.
Emile Servan-Schreiber (of NewsFutures):
From: Emile Servan-Schreiber
Date: Mon, 15 Jun 2009 22:45:43 +0200
Subject: Re: GE Imagination Market License
That’s pretty funny, considering that the creator of the GE Imagination Market herself concludes in several published papers that “using markets to rank ideas may be no better than other methods of idea ranking,” [...]
Can prediction markets help improve economic forecasts?
Contrary to the suggestion of Hendry and Reade, I don’t think “model averaging” is a useful explanation of what prediction markets do.
At the contrary, let’s call them prediction markets.
Panos Ipeirotis:
[...] Now, do we need to call them *prediction* markets? I would agree that there is no real reason for that… All markets have information aggregation characteristics and sometimes it is annoying to see how much we reinvent the wheel when studying “prediction” markets, pretending that they are fundamentally new beasts. (The “we” includes [...]
More about prediction markets
Panos Ipeirotis:
“these discrete outcome markets are not very good for use in decision-making”
I would actually argue strongly against this. What if you have an event that is indeed binary? (Say, GM will file for bankruptcy.) Credit default swaps are fundamentally such contracts and they serve a useful purpose for hedging, if used properly. For example, [...]
The Accuracy Of Prediction Markets
- A Lesson in Prediction Markets from the Game of Craps – by Paul Hewitt
- Why Public Prediction Markets Fail – by Paul Hewitt
Both articles are required reading for Jed Christiansen and Panos Ipeirotis (alias “Prof Panos”).
Hearthis post
Is Robin Hanson a market fundamentalist?
Niall O’Connor:
Robin Hanson, is what I would term a market fundamentalist – somebody who believes that markets are the primary mechanism for achieving the public good. Recent events have demonstrated that this creed is morally bankrupt. We are, in the words of Michael Sandel, “at the end of an era of market triumphalism”.
Robin Hanson:
I deny [...]
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