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Recent Posts
- Native apps are reigning on mobiles, but Jakob Nielsen strategically bets on web apps. — [LINK]
- Steven Krivit continues to trash Andrea Rossi and his LENR technology. — [LINK]
- Interview with Adam Lashinsky — [VIDEO]
- Why some people are more innovative — [VIDEO]
- Forbes editor deciphers Steve Jobs’s Apple. — [VIDEO]
- Jason Ruspini rebuts Eric Zitzewitz on the regulation of political prediction markets. — [COMMENT]
- Eric Zitzewitz petitions the CFTC in favor of real-money prediction markets about politics. — [TEXT]
- Global warming is a big scam. — [LINK]
- A Swarm of Nano Quadrotors — [VIDEO]
- The Tragedy of the Commons — [VIDEO]
- Guy Kawasaki on Steve Jobs — [VIDEO]
- Inside Apple — [VIDEO]
- Mitt Romney’s taxes — [LINKS]
- A critique of Apple’s multimedia iBooks. — [LINK]
- Does Apple lack “generosity”? — [LINKS]
- Apple Education Push — [LINKS]
- Water Crystals — [DOCUMENT]
- Apple’s e-book software will allow publishers to make textbooks more interactive. — [LINKS + VIDEO]
- Alain Soral is France’s most dangerous intellectual… (dangerous for the French plutocrats, that is). — [VIDEO]
- Computers thru time — [CHART]
Category Archives: Analysis (Meta)
Eric Zitzewitz petitions the CFTC in favor of real-money prediction markets about politics. — [TEXT]
Eric Zitzewitz: We are academic researchers who study prediction markets. We are writing in favor of allowing NADEX, or a similar entity, to offer a broad range of political and policy event futures, including the three they are currently proposing. … Continue reading →
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Regulations
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Tagged academia, bets, Betting, betting markets, CFTC, derivatives, Economics, Eric Zitzewitz, event derivative markets, event derivatives, events, forecasting, laws, Politics, predicting, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, Research
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Central banks should set up prediction markets. — [LINK]
Central banks should set up prediction markets.
The real reasons why prediction markets are accurate. — [LINK]
Emile Servan-Schreiber: – Over the long run and many predictions, markets outperform most individuals; – The more participants there are in a market, the more accurate it is (although there are diminishing returns); – The more participants there are in … Continue reading →
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers
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Tagged bets, Betting, betting markets, derivatives, Emile Servan-Schreiber, event derivative markets, event derivatives, events, futures, Lumenogic, NewsFutures, prediction markets
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1 Comment
InTrade is not predictive, says notable financial journalist. — [SCREENSHOT]
For info, here’s the Midas Oracle feed at Twitter. I publish there plenty of prediction market news that don’t appear on this blog.
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice)
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Tagged betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event futures, events, forecasting, forecasts, futures, Henry Blodget, InTrade, predicting, prediction markets, Predictions
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1 Comment
Ex-HSX Max Keiser disses real-money prediction markets (again). — [VIDEO]
Posted in Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Regulations
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Tagged America, bets, Betting, betting markets, Cantor, Cantor Fitzgerald, derivatives, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event futures, events, futures, Gambling, gaming, HSX, laws, Meet Max Keiser, prediction markets, Regulations, United States Of America
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What uses for the prediction markets on geopolitical events? — [ANALYSIS]
–> Well researched and balanced article from London School of Economics’s Matthew Partridge: The intelligence and security community also has mixed views. John F McCreary, the Chief Analysis Officer for KGS Security, who had a senior role at the United … Continue reading →
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets
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Tagged Betting, betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasting, London School of Economics, Matthew Partridge, Mike Smithson, predicting, prediction markets
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How prediction markets help forecast consumers’ behaviors — [REPORT]
Forrester Research’s Roxana Strohmenger has been caught red hand sucking up to our Paul Hewitt. Roxana Strohmenger (e-mail me at chrisfmasse at gmail dot com to get a copy of the report): At the end of the day, a prediction … Continue reading →
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Business, Cases, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Consulting, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice)
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Tagged Betting, betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, derivatives, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasting, forecasting efficiency, forecasting precision, information completeness, markets, precision, predicting, prediction efficiency, prediction markets, prediction precision
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2 Comments
Paul Hewitt on the usefulness of the prediction markets — [ANALYSIS]
Paul Hewitt: I don’t think there is any question that the usefulness of prediction markets has been exaggerated. We don’t hear much from James Surowiecki anymore. So a few of those polled probably indicated that he doesn’t exaggerate the usefulness … Continue reading →
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets
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Tagged betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, derivatives, Economics, economics bloggers, economists, event derivative markets, event derivatives, James Surowiecki, Justin Wolfers, Kauffman Foundation, poll, polls, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, survey, surveys, usefulness, usefulness of prediction markets
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Have Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers and James Surowiecki been exaggerating the usefulness of the prediction markets? — [SURVEY RESULT]
Here’s the result of the Kauffman Foundation poll: – UPDATE: Here’s an example (among many) of the grave problems with prediction markets, which are unreported by the media. – PDF document. – - – - – - – - – … Continue reading →
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Exchanges & Markets, The Global Economy
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Tagged betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, derivatives, Economics, economics bloggers, economists, event derivative markets, event derivatives, James Surowiecki, Justin Wolfers, Kauffman Foundation, poll, polls, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, survey, surveys, usefulness, usefulness of prediction markets
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1 Comment
After years of pretending being a prediction market consultant, Robin Hanson finally confesses nobody has ever cared about his stuff. — [LINK]
The Emperor of enterprise prediction markets is naked. Robin Hanson: I can confirm that this disinterest is real. For example, when I try to sell firms on internal prediction markets wherein employees forecast things like sales and project completion dates, … Continue reading →
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets
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Tagged betting markets, Collective Intelligence, enterprise prediction markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasting, forecasting accuracy, predicting, predicting accuracy, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, wisdom of crowds
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