Category Archives: Analysis (Meta)

Eric Zitzewitz petitions the CFTC in favor of real-money prediction markets about politics. — [TEXT]

Eric Zitzewitz: We are academic researchers who study prediction markets. We are writing in favor of allowing NADEX, or a similar entity, to offer a broad range of political and policy event futures, including the three they are currently proposing. … Continue reading

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Central banks should set up prediction markets. — [LINK]

Central banks should set up prediction markets.

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The real reasons why prediction markets are accurate. — [LINK]

Emile Servan-Schreiber: – Over the long run and many predictions, markets outperform most individuals; – The more participants there are in a market, the more accurate it is (although there are diminishing returns); – The more participants there are in … Continue reading

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InTrade is not predictive, says notable financial journalist. — [SCREENSHOT]

For info, here’s the Midas Oracle feed at Twitter. I publish there plenty of prediction market news that don’t appear on this blog.

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Ex-HSX Max Keiser disses real-money prediction markets (again). — [VIDEO]

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What uses for the prediction markets on geopolitical events? — [ANALYSIS]

–> Well researched and balanced article from London School of Economics’s Matthew Partridge: The intelligence and security community also has mixed views. John F McCreary, the Chief Analysis Officer for KGS Security, who had a senior role at the United … Continue reading

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How prediction markets help forecast consumers’ behaviors — [REPORT]

Forrester Research’s Roxana Strohmenger has been caught red hand sucking up to our Paul Hewitt. Roxana Strohmenger (e-mail me at chrisfmasse at gmail dot com to get a copy of the report): At the end of the day, a prediction … Continue reading

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Paul Hewitt on the usefulness of the prediction markets — [ANALYSIS]

Paul Hewitt: I don’t think there is any question that the usefulness of prediction markets has been exaggerated. We don’t hear much from James Surowiecki anymore. So a few of those polled probably indicated that he doesn’t exaggerate the usefulness … Continue reading

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Have Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers and James Surowiecki been exaggerating the usefulness of the prediction markets? — [SURVEY RESULT]

Here’s the result of the Kauffman Foundation poll: – UPDATE: Here’s an example (among many) of the grave problems with prediction markets, which are unreported by the media. – PDF document. – - – - – - – - – … Continue reading

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After years of pretending being a prediction market consultant, Robin Hanson finally confesses nobody has ever cared about his stuff. — [LINK]

The Emperor of enterprise prediction markets is naked. Robin Hanson: I can confirm that this disinterest is real. For example, when I try to sell firms on internal prediction markets wherein employees forecast things like sales and project completion dates, … Continue reading

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