Yearly Archives: 2006

Iran – Is Something Really Up?

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Both Spook86 and Michael Ledeen suggested a few days ago that the USA might be adopting a stronger position towards Iran. Are we?

Look at Tradesports&#8217- price history for its AIRSTRIKE.IRAN.DEC07 contract:

(Click the thumbnail to display a large version of this chart.)

So what does this combination of an increase in stern American and British rhetoric, and stagnant odds in the geopolitical wagering market, mean? I think it&#8217-s clear. The rhetoric is most likely not intended as a prelude to action by us. It is intended as a substitute for action. This is business as usual and not at all encouraging.

(See also this post.)

Cross-posted at Chicago Boyz, an Intrade affiliate.

NewsFuturess explainer on prediction markets

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No GravatarNo definition, but there&#8217-s an example, here &#8212-static, alas.

(((In passing, I see that NewsFutures &#8220-will use the Brookings Institution&#8217-s Iraq Index as a source to measure troop levels.&#8221- Good. But what it they fail to deliver, like the US DOD in the NKM scandal?)))

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Is that HubDub’s Nigel Eccles on the bottom left of that UK WebMission pic?
  • Collective Error = Average Individual Error – Prediction Diversity
  • When gambling meets Wall Street — Proposal for a brand-new kind of finance-based lottery
  • The definitive proof that it’s presently impossible to practice prediction market journalism with BetFair.
  • The Absence of Teams In Production of Blog Journalism
  • Publish a comment on the BetFair forum, get arrested.
  • If I had to guess, I would say about 50 percent of the “name pros” you see on television on a regular basis have a negative net worth. Frightening, I know.