The Open Institute Of Prediction Markets

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research

A short post to thank all the people who e-mailed me to assure me of their support for this long-term endeavor.

There are so many luminaries and organizations who have said they were &#8220-interested&#8221- by this institute project that I am starting to think that this idea just can&#8217-t fall apart &#8212-the expectations are now too high, and our duty to the next generations is to succeed.

That said, I don&#8217-t have yet the first cent for this institute, and 2009 will undergo the worst economic recession in our lifetime &#8212-but who cares about the harsh reality, as long as we have sweet dreams. :-D

mindbrain

Ex-HSX Max Keisers public campaign to destabilize the Cantor Exchange

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Financial Times:

After Enron, Hollywood bets on its own script for future profits

Published: December 20 2008 02:00 | Last updated: December 20 2008 02:00

From Mr Max Keiser.

Sir,

The potential for mischief with Cantor’s new box office futures contracts is enormous (“All eyes on Hollywood futures”, December 13). When I was running the Hollywood Stock Exchange during the 1990s I was constantly approached by the Hollywood studios asking me to move up the prices of their MovieStocks to influence the perception of their films in the weeks just before a movie was released at the box office.

I believe that when these box office futures contracts become available these same studios will redirect millions of dollars they spend on marketing to buy and sell futures contracts in order to drive the price, and therefore perception, of their own and competing studios’ films, higher or lower.

Perception is the currency in Hollywood, and pricing perception, while putting the price discovery mechanism for perception into the hands of the same hedge fund and futures trading industry that has, by and large, been responsible for the mess the global financial system now finds itself in, portends a new kind of disaster film none of us wants to see.

How long before taxpayers in the US will be asked to bail out the Hollywood studios after they have bankrupted themselves making risky futures bets trying to influence the perception of their own and other studios’ films? Does the US really need a new way to destabilise its economy with more dodgy derivatives? I think I have seen this movie before. It was called Enron.

Max Keiser,
Paris, France
Former CEO and Co-Founder, HSX Holdings/Hollywood Stock Exchange

Financial Times: All eyes on Hollywood futures

Previously: Cantor Exchange

Previously: Should the Hollywood Stock Exchange become a real-money betting exchange? – 2007-10-04

InTrades bank is in trouble.

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New York Times:

Revelation Rocks Bank in Ireland

By MATTHEW SALTMARSH
Published: December 19, 2008

A major Irish bank was shaken Friday by the revelation of 87 million euros, or $125 million, in undisclosed personal loans to the bank’s chairman — prompting his resignation as well as that of the bank’s chief executive. Sean FitzPatrick, chairman of Anglo Irish Bank, announced his resignation late Thursday after regulators discovered that he had hidden the personal loans from shareholders. The bank’s chief executive, David Drumm, also resigned. The scandal sent the shares in the bank plummeting […]

A statement Friday from the regulator, the Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland, said it became aware this year of “matters surrounding loans from Anglo Irish Bank to Sean FitzPatrick.”

“While it does not appear that anything illegal took place in relation to these loans, the financial regulator was of the view that the practices surrounding these loans were not appropriate,” the statement said.

Analysts said the scandal could affect the pace of the government’s support for the banking sector. […]

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