Daily Archives: May 18, 2008

The BetFair-Fallon debacle cost British taxpayers ?950,000.

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Jesus.

Thank God I don&#8217-t pay my taxes in the UK. I&#8217-d be furious at BetFair and at the British Police.

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NEXT: Has BetFair a little part of responsibility in the collapse of the Kieren Fallon trial?

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • A second look at HedgeStreet’s comment to the CFTC about “event markets”
  • Since YooPick opened their door, Midas Oracle has been getting, daily, 2 or 3 dozens referrals from FaceBook.
  • US presidential hopeful John McCain hates the Midas Oracle bloggers.
  • If you have tried to contact Chris Masse thru the Midas Oracle Contact Form, I’m terribly sorry to inform you that your message was not delivered to the recipient.
  • THE CFTC’s SECRET AGENDA —UNVEILED.
  • “Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.”
  • Meet professor Thomas W. Malone (on the right), from the MIT’s Center for Collective Intelligence.

The managing editor of CNBC.com asks readers whether they should report what the (play-money and real-money) prediction markets say. He is not that hot on the idea -to say the least. Which is why we should develop a blog network on prediction markets -to get rid of the journalists filter and report

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But the &#8220-gambling&#8221- nature puts some journalists off.

Is it just providing information &#8230- or promoting betting action?

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See, that&#8217-s exactly why I want to develop my &#8220-Midas Oracle Project&#8221-.

Classic journalists and classic bloggers will never treat prediction markets with the maximum sophistication they deserve.

Only brand-new blog networks that will specialize in prediction markets will do a good job.

I&#8217-ll provide more details soon.

I hope that some of you will join this project. It should be a collective endeavor.

E-mail me to join.

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Robust, the prediction markets are the best mechanism for aggregating information. Thus, companies should use them for assessing strategy and hedging risks.

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Via Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures, John Auters in the Financial Times.

[…] This leads to [Justin Wolfers]&#8216- claim that [prediction markets] are the best way to aggregate information. This is true of any given amount of information. Take three economists and make them trade out a market over their predictions for next month&#8217-s inflation number, he suggests, and they will arrive at a more accurate prediction than a poll of the same three economists. In a market, those with stronger conviction (or inside information) can express that conviction- those less confident will not be willing to stake money. […]

Prediction markets remain subject to the same weaknesses as other markets. The principle of &#8220-garbage in, garbage out&#8221- [*] applies. If there is only poor information to aggregate, they will be as wrong as everyone else. […]

It would make sense to incorporate these odds when making investments. […]

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Excellent.

(I don&#8217-t get his micro slam against the wisdom of crowds. Anyway.)

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[*] As explained in the prediction market explainer published on the frontpage of Midas Oracle.

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