Do sports prediction markets corrupt sport? No.

No Gravatar

Mark Davies (&#8221-managing director of corporate affairs at BetFair&#8221- = their spin doctor) in The Guardian:

Does the existence of betting exchanges corrupt sport?

NO

In the world of finance, it has always been far easier for employees to have a negative impact on a company&#8217-s share price than a positive one. Even a chief executive would be hard pushed to cause a price rise on any given day, but anyone with physical access to the company can very easily cause a fall. No one would suggest people should only be able to buy shares, and not sell them. Instead, regulators ensure that sanctions against corruption tip the balance heavily against trying it. Make the penalty draconian, and you deal with corruption at its heart.

Betting on sport is no different. The only people who can corrupt sport are those taking part – a fact unchanged by the existence of betting exchanges. If you prevent people from succumbing to the temptation, would-be corrupters have no one to help them . You and I cannot rig a race just because we can bet against its outcome: we need someone who can affect the result. If that person might lose a livelihood, would they risk it for a fast buck?

Attack corruption at source, and it does not matter where the bet was placed. Nevertheless, some still long for the days when more traditional bookmakers held every card (an interesting notion considering what has historically been their dubious reputation)- others prefer a Tote monopoly- and some believe that banning bets against outcomes would constrain corrupters.

This series of arguments is based on the naive belief that a black market does not exist. This is absurd. Asian syndicates behind apparently rigged football matches (like those who turned floodlights out at grounds in the late 1990s) are no more dependent on Britain&#8217-s legitimate market than Colombian drugs barons are on sales of aspirin at Boots. The difference between legal, regulated, transparent betting – nowhere more so than on the leading betting exchange [= BetFair], where every transaction is open to scrutiny from 29 different sporting regulators – and the murky, illegal market, is the difference between chalk and cheese.

Black markets thrive where legal ones offer poor value. Now that the exchanges offer the best value, those previously tempted by odds on the black market are returning to the legal fold. Corruption-free sport comes from total transparency. The exchanges are the only part of the market that offer it. People get hung up on &#8220-betting to lose&#8221-.

Leave aside the obvious: bets to win (most clearly demonstrated in two outcome sports like tennis or snooker) are direct bets on the opposite outcome to lose. &#8220-Betting to lose&#8221- is just betting at value: if the price unfairly reflects the realistic chance of something happening, why should you not bet against it?

Value bets, placed for or against, are perfectly legitimate- acting to impact a given outcome adversely is corrupt. But banning the former through fear of the latter is like banning cutlery because some people use knives to harm. It is not the knives doing the damage, but the criminals using them. Legal betting does not corrupt sport- people do – and they are more likely to do it when they think they w ill not get caught. Measures to protect sport are not best aimed at open, transparent, and audited betting markets but through its participants, where the corruption can occur.

Excellent.

InTrade are aware; BetFair are not.

No GravatarDavid Pennock, the Yahoo! research scientist, in April 2007:

One of the great things about InTrade (recently split from TradeSports) is that they are open to suggestions from wide-eyed academics. [&#8230-]

Exactly.

Previously: The London School of Economics chose InTrade-TradeSports over BetFair-TradeFair for floating event derivatives on global warming.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • If Midas Oracle were to meet, would we use Huddle, and why?
  • WORLD’S SUCH A SMALL PLACE: Smarkets meet HubDub.
  • 50% of our prediction market luminaries have a MacBook.
  • STRAIGHT FROM OUR TRUISM DEPARTMENT: Money buys happiness.
  • Ron Paul (R) and Barney Frank (D) ally together to attack “the practical hurdles of the federal law, known as the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, rather than its legitimacy”.
  • Clicking on the “SPHERE: RELATED CONTENT” button, at the bottom of each Midas Oracle post, will bring you a list of external webspots.
  • FRIGHTENING: Jed Christiansen’s prediction market blog was briefly overtaken by web spammers, who inserted invisible links to their commercial sites so as to game the Google PageRank system.

Electability of Hillary Clinton according to InTrade-TradeSports = 65%

Eddy Elfenbein at Crossing Wall Street:

I written about this topic before but one of the things I find fascinating about finance is how you can use markets for two items to create an “implied market” for a third. This idea is at the root of all the complex financial instruments that caused problems for so many hedge funds recently.

I’ll give you a good example. At InTrade.com, the site where you can trade futures on real world events, you can buy contracts on which candidate will win his or her party’s nomination [*] next year. There’s a separate contract for which candidate will win the presidency [**].

Let&#8217-s break out some math, shall we?

If you divide the latter [**] by the former [*], you get an “electability” contract.
For example, according to recent prices, Rudy Giuliani has a 41.5% chance (I&#8217-m using the last price) of getting the GOP nomination and an 18.4% of winning the presidency. Soooo&#8230- the market believes that if he gets the nomination, he has a 44.34% chance of winning (18.4% [**] divided by 41.5% [*]).

(The only minor flaw is that could include a candidate winning but not getting the nomination, however, I’m content with dismissing that possibility as beyond remote.)

What’s interesting is electability in the general election can have little impact on how well a candidate does in the primaries. Some people, myself included, think that Ronald Reagan would have had a better chance of beating Jimmy Carter in 1976 instead of Gerald Ford, even though Ford beat Reagan for the nomination.

I should add that I don’t place a great deal of faith in these real world futures markets. I simply see them as fun games to enjoy, but not to take too seriously.
Also, the markets aren’t very liquid. A minor change could have a big impact on the smaller-priced contracts.

Having said that, here’s a look at some candidates and the market’s take on their electability (sorry Paulites and Edwards fan, your candidates were too low to get a useful meaure).

Candidate………To Get Nomination….To Win&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-Electability
Hillary&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-..59.5&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-.39.0&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-65.55
Obama&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-33.0&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-.17.2&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-52.12
Giuliani&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-41.5&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-.18.4&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-44.34
Huckabee&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-..18.6&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-7.2&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-38.71
Romney&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-..18.8&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-5.9&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-&#8230-31.38


Author Profile&nbsp-Editor and Publisher of Midas Oracle .ORG .NET .COM &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s mugshot &#8212- Contact Chris Masse &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s LinkedIn profile &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s FaceBook profile &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s Google profile &#8212- Sophia-Antipolis, France, E.U. Read more from this author&#8230-


Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:

  • Comments are now completely open on Midas Oracle.
  • Albert Einstein, Chairman of the Midas Oracle Advisory Board
  • Erratic –but not Stochastic– Charts
  • Barack Obama is the 44th US president.
  • We already have prediction markets in future tax rates. It’s called the municipal bond yield curve.
  • DELEGATES AND SUPERDELEGATES ACCOUNTANCY
  • O’Reilly – Money-Tech Conference