The BusinessWeek contributing writer has a poor choice of vocabulary.

No GravatarPallavi Gogoi talks about &#8220-predictive markets&#8221- instead of prediction markets.

How dare. :-D

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Last year’s best April Fool’s Day Joke had something to do with the Wisdom Of Crowds.
  • Will HedgeStreet USA, the hypothetical InTrade USA, and the hypothetical TradeFair USA, be regulated in the future by a merged SEC+CFTC regulatory structure?
  • WORST THAN ELIOT SPITZER (if it were possible): Formula One boss, Max Mosley, had sado-masochist sex with 5 prostitutes, for 5 hours (!!), reenacting a concentration camp scene (!!) in which he played the role of both Nazi guard and inmate.
  • Is BetFair Poker a booby trap for the gullible novices? Does The Sporting Exchange (the operator of the BetFair brands) help gangs plucking down innocent recreational poker players?? To get an inkling, don’t read The Guardian, seeded by the BetFair spin doctor- read Midas Oracle.
  • The video that the technologically retarded BetFair spin doctor should watch.

Slate publishes a BetFair explainer for the Americans.

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YouBet – The wonders and dangers of online sports wagering. – (page 2) – [BetFair explained to the Americans] – by Slate&#8217-s T.D. Thornton – 2007-11-28

[…] Betfair, which opened for business in 2000, is best described as day trading for sports bettors. Using Web-based accounts, anonymous users can set their own odds or bid on odds offered by other players. Online &#8220-betting exchanges&#8220-—there are dozens, but Betfair is the kingpin, with a 90 percent market share—eliminate the role of odds-setting middlemen like local bookies and Las Vegas sports books. Instead of wagering on take-it-or-leave-it odds set by the house, gamblers are free to choose among many different price points, striking bets for as little as $1 up to hundreds of thousands. […]

On balance, Betfair offers a number of advantages over traditional sports betting. Compared with bookies and casinos, exchanges keep a much smaller cut of the action, a 1 percent to 3 percent &#8220-vig&#8221- that&#8217-s far less than the standard 10 percent. (In the long run, the exchanges are banking on greater betting volume far outpacing the difference in price: Betfair handles 5 million transactions a day, processing more than 300 bets per second.) […]

Exchanges are also unique in that you can lay odds on a team or individual to lose a sporting event. Naysayers believe that betting to lose is, well, unsporting, and that it is an open invitation for corruption and skullduggery. But this argument is idealistic whitewash. Just ask anyone involved in high finance, where betting to lose is an accepted, ethical strategy—on Wall Street, it&#8217-s called short selling. […]

The most clever innovation, however, is in-game gambling. No longer must you stop placing bets once the game begins. In-game wagering lends itself best to slower-paced sports like golf. When the action is much faster, the limits of technology get pushed to ridiculous proportions, with frantic players punching in frenzied bets that have more to do with market timing than sports. […]

If the United States loosened up its regulations, online exchanges would proliferate here. By creating a market-based framework for stateside sports betting, a chaotic gambling scene would, for once, have some order and credibility. […]

#1. This is the most significant news piece about BetFair I have seen in the American media.

#2. You&#8217-ll have noted that the prediction market approach is completely absent from the writer&#8217-s angle. (TradeSports and InTrade are not even cited.) My view is that this betting exchange approach and our prediction market approach are complementary. BetFair should have both.

Slides of presentations from Conference on Corporate Applications of Prediction/Information Markets (1 November), Kansas City

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The speakers&#8217- presentations are now available in pdf format on the conference webpage,

http://people.ku.edu/~cigar/PMConf_2007.

I intend to keep this page in place, so feel free to bookmark it and use it as a resource.

Previous blog posts by Koleman Strumpf:

  • Prediction Markets in the Classroom: Inkling Markets
  • Summary of Conference on Corporate Applications of Prediction/Information Markets (1 November), Kansas City
  • Reminder: Corporate Applications of Prediction Markets Conference (1 November)
  • Conference: Corporate Applications of Prediction/Information Markets (Thursday, 1 November 2007)
  • Copernican Principle: How To Predict the End of the World
  • Win Justin’s Money? (re: Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? Redux.)
  • Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market?

Betfair may be forced to raise its commission charges.

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The British Horseracing Authority has put a case to the Department of Culture, Media and Sport for a greater contribution from the betting industry in the 47th levy.

Seeking a levy of somewhere between ?135million and ?153million for 2008-09, compared with an estimated ?94m from the latest scheme, the BHA&#8217-s document calls for the government to settle the levy on the basis of 15% of gross win on British horseracing.

The BHA also calls for betting exchanges to contribute to the levy on a new and equitable basis, stating that the contribution made by betting exchanges to the Levy should increase from the ?6m paid in 2006-07 to ?20m.

This figure would be achieved, they argue, through the imposition of a 1.25% Levy on the net profits of punters on betting exchanges, raising the possibility that Betfair et al, may be forced to increase their commission charges.

An insight into the contentious issue of how betting exchanges should be taxed, may be found here:

http://www.bettingmarket.com/tax.htm

External Link: The Guardian

Sounds like Sean Park will strike it rich, once again.

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Sean Park (Founding Partner at Sixth Paradigm, and blogger at The Park Paradigm)

Sean Park is a leading independent thinker on the future of financial markets, the author of The Park Paradigm, and the founding partner of Sixth Paradigm LLP:

The technology of the digital age is driving an unprecedented explosion in the ability to create markets in anything. Trade anything. Not just physical goods. Not just financial instruments. But ideas. Events. Outcomes. The emergence of these kinds of markets will – over time – impact how we view and interact with the world in all aspects of our personal and professional lives. They will fundamentally alter the current world economic and social paradigm.

Sean is also a founding investor in innovative companies such as Betfair and WeatherBill (where he is also a non-executive Director) and has extensive experience investing in and advising start-up and high growth companies in addition to over 16 years of experience working at a senior level in capital markets and investment banking. Building businesses has been a key theme throughout his career.

I&#8217-m bullish on WeatherBill. They showed that an event derivative exchange can have a more user-friendly interface &#8212-stuff that BetFair-TradeFair and TradeSports-InTrade have not computed yet. I wonder whether the WeatherBill approach could work out with other risks &#8212-other than weather.

On Sean Park, as a blogger, one of my sources said to me that he sometimes elaborates on ideas invented by others years ago and makes it like they are his. I&#8217-m a brand-new feed subscriber to his little blog, so I&#8217-ll judge by myself.

&#8212-

Previously: Thoughts on Weather Bill – by Eric Zitzewitz – 2007-01-04

What I think is most innovative is the idea of marketing a prediction market contract as “insurance.”